We investigate the optimal allocation of effort to a collection of n projects. The projects are ‘restless' in that the state of a project evolves in time, whether or not it is allocated effort. The evolution of the state of each project follows a Markov rule, but transitions and rewards depend on whether or not the project receives effort. The objective is to maximize the expected time-average reward under a constraint that exactly m of the n projects receive effort at any one time. We show that as m and n tend to ∞ with m/n fixed, the per-project reward of the optimal policy is asymptotically the same as that achieved by a policy which operates under the relaxed constraint that an average of m projects be active. The relaxed constraint was considered by Whittle (1988) who described how to use a Lagrangian multiplier approach to assign indices to the projects. He conjectured that the policy of allocating effort to the m projects of greatest index is asymptotically optimal as m and n tend to∞. We show that the conjecture is true if the differential equation describing the fluid approximation to the index policy has a globally stable equilibrium point. This need not be the case, and we present an example for which the index policy is not asymptotically optimal. However, numerical work suggests that such counterexamples are extremely rare and that the size of the suboptimality which one might expect is minuscule.
The following article discusses the current emphasis and attention being given to the future of emergency management, as well as theoretical constructs designed to guide research and help practitioners reduce disaster. It illustrates that while the disaster-resistant community, disaster-resilient community, and sustainable development/sustainable hazards mitigation concepts provide many unique advantages for disaster scholarship and management, they fail to sufficiently address the triggering agents, functional areas, actors, variables, and disciplines pertaining to calamitous events. In making this argument, the article asserts that any future paradigm and policy guide must be built on-yet go further than-comprehensive emergency management. The article also reviews and alters the concept of invulnerable development. Finally, the article presents "comprehensive vulnerability management" as a paradigm and suggests that it is better suited to guide scholarly and practitioner efforts to understand and reduce disasters than the aforementioned perspectives.
We investigate the optimal allocation of effort to a collection of n projects. The projects are ‘restless' in that the state of a project evolves in time, whether or not it is allocated effort. The evolution of the state of each project follows a Markov rule, but transitions and rewards depend on whether or not the project receives effort. The objective is to maximize the expected time-average reward under a constraint that exactly m of the n projects receive effort at any one time. We show that as m and n tend to ∞ with m/n fixed, the per-project reward of the optimal policy is asymptotically the same as that achieved by a policy which operates under the relaxed constraint that an average of m projects be active. The relaxed constraint was considered by Whittle (1988) who described how to use a Lagrangian multiplier approach to assign indices to the projects. He conjectured that the policy of allocating effort to the m projects of greatest index is asymptotically optimal as m and n tend to∞. We show that the conjecture is true if the differential equation describing the fluid approximation to the index policy has a globally stable equilibrium point. This need not be the case, and we present an example for which the index policy is not asymptotically optimal. However, numerical work suggests that such counterexamples are extremely rare and that the size of the suboptimality which one might expect is minuscule.
We consider a queuing system with several identical servers, each with its own queue. Identical customers arrive according to some stochastic process and as each customer arrives it must be assigned to some server's queue. No jockeying amongst the queues is allowed. We are interested in assigning the arriving customers so as to maximize the number of customers which complete their service by a certain time. If each customer's service time is a random variable with a non-decreasing hazard rate then the strategy which does this is one which assigns each arrival to the shortest queue.
We prove a monotonicity result for the problem of optimal service rate control in certain queueing networks. Consider, as an illustrative example, a number of ·/M/1 queues which are arranged in a cycle with some number of customers moving around the cycle. A holding cost hi(xi) is charged for each unit of time that queue i contains xi customers, with hi being convex. As a function of the queue lengths the service rate at each queue i is to be chosen in the interval , where cost ci(μ) is charged for each unit of time that the service rate μis in effect at queue i. It is shown that the policy which minimizes the expected total discounted cost has a monotone structure: namely, that by moving one customer from queue i to the following queue, the optimal service rate in queue i is not increased and the optimal service rates elsewhere are not decreased. We prove a similar result for problems of optimal arrival rate and service rate control in general queueing networks. The results are extended to an average-cost measure, and an example is included to show that in general the assumption of convex holding costs may not be relaxed. A further example shows that the optimal policy may not be monotone unless the choice of possible service rates at each queue includes 0.
As a model for an ATM switch we consider the overflow frequency of a queue that is served at a constant rate and in which the arrival process is the superposition of N traffic streams. We consider an asymptotic as N → ∞ in which the service rate Nc and buffer size Nb also increase linearly in N. In this regime, the frequency of buffer overflow is approximately exp(–NI(c, b)), where I(c, b) is given by the solution to an optimization problem posed in terms of time-dependent logarithmic moment generating functions. Experimental results for Gaussian and Markov modulated fluid source models show that this asymptotic provides a better estimate of the frequency of buffer overflow than ones based on large buffer asymptotics.
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