Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) and longterm temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of $37-90 billion and investment of $1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27%-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

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The transition to a sustainable bio‐based economy is perceived as a valid path towards low‐carbon development for emerging economies that have rich biomass resources. In the case of Colombia, the role of biomass has been tackled through qualitative roadmaps and regional climate policy assessments. However, neither of these approaches has addressed the complexity of the bio‐based economy systematically in the wider context of emission mitigation and energy and chemicals supply. In response to this limitation, we extended a bottom‐up energy system optimization model by adding a comprehensive database of novel bio‐based value chains. We included advanced road and aviation biofuels, (bio)chemicals, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and integrated biorefinery configurations. A scenario analysis was conducted for the period 2015–2050, which reflected uncertainties in the capacity for technological learning, climate policy ambitions, and land availability for energy crops. Our results indicate that biomass can play an important, even if variable, role in supplying 315–760 PJ/y of modern bio‐based products. In pursuit of a deep decarbonization trajectory, the large‐scale mobilization of biomass resources can reduce the cost of the energy system by up to 11 billion $/year, the marginal abatement cost by 62%, and the potential reliance on imports of oil and chemicals in the future. The mitigation potential of BECCS can reach 24–29% of the cumulative avoided emissions between 2015 and 2050. The proposed system analysis framework can provide detailed quantitative information on the role of biomass in low carbon development of emerging economies. © 2020 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and other net-zero emissions fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation.