Net-zero Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America: Challenges and Opportunities

Bataille, Christopher; Waisman, Henri; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Jaramillo, Marcela; Delgado, Ricardo; Argüello, Ricardo; Clarke, Leon; Wild, Thomas; Lallana, Francisco; Bravo, Gonzalo; LeTreut, Gaëlle; Nadal, Gustavo; Godínez, Guido; Quirós-Tortós, Jairo; Pereira, Eunice; Howells, Mark; Buira, Daniel; Tovilla, Jordi; Farbes, Jamil; Ryan, Jones; Ugarte, Daniel de la Torre; Collado, Mauricio; Requejo, Fernando; Gómez, Ximena; Soria, Rafael; Villamar, Daniel; Rochedo, Pedro; Império, Mariana; Briand, Yann; Svensson, Johannes

doi:10.18235/0002717

Cited by 12 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Coordinated, multi‐sector planning that promotes synergies while avoiding conflicts and unintended consequences (Hejazi et al., 2015; Khan, Wild, Clarke, et al., 2020; Payet‐Burin, et al., 2021) is more likely to competitively secure financial and institutional support for planned interventions. Navigating these tradeoffs, particularly with respect to biomass demand and its potential conflicts with stable food and water supplies, is a major issue confronting LAC countries as they craft their decarbonization plans (Bataille et al., 2020; Delgado et al., 2020) and could potentially call for strategies that require less reliance on biomass.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Biomass demand serves as a key example. As countries around the world seek to decarbonize their economies consistent with their pledges in the Paris Climate Agreement, the LAC region's land resources could play a key role by reducing deforestation and by producing bioenergy crops for regional and global consumption (Bataille et al., 2020; da Silva et al., 2019; Dallemand et al., 2015; Scarlat et al., 2015). Global socioeconomic and climate change are also important, given the LAC region's strong connection to the global economy through agricultural trade (Flachsbarth et al., 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Along with Sub‐Saharan Africa, the LAC region is expected to account for the bulk of future global agricultural land expansion (OECD/FAO, 2015; Rosa et al., 2020). As countries around the world seek to decarbonize their economies consistent with their pledges in the Paris Climate Agreement, the LAC region's land resources could play a key role by reducing deforestation and by producing bioenergy crops for regional and global consumption (Bataille et al., 2020; da Silva et al., 2019; Dallemand et al., 2015; Scarlat et al., 2015). This demand for land resources has non‐trivial implications for food security (Fuhrman et al., 2020; Fujimori et al., 2019), as food crops (for both domestic consumption and export) will have to compete with purpose‐grown biomass crops for land and water resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems

et al. 2021

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This study seeks to understand how Argentina's energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will coevolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina's sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina's agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina's river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems

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“…There exist systemic studies on net‐zero emissions at national, regional and community levels (Bataille et al, 2020; Charani Shandiz et al, 2021; He et al, 2017; Lausselet et al, 2021; Pye et al, 2020; Siskos et al, 2018). Wimbadi and Djalante (2020) provide a comprehensive review of various net‐zero emission studies.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector

Kannan

Panos

Hirschberg

et al. 2022

Futures & Foresight Science

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The Swiss government sets out a net‐zero emission goal by 2050 while phasing out nuclear energy. This study presents insights on the transport sector's contribution to meet this goal, in terms of which type of vehicle drivetrains and fuel supply options are cost‐effective? What could be critical for the transition of the transportation sector? We use the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model and assess prospective technological scenarios for the whole energy system. The transport module has fast‐charging stations and mechanisms to control e‐mobility charging. Results indicate that extensive direct and indirect electrification of mobility increases the electricity demand up to 22 TWh. While to a certain extent electric cars are competitive even if the climate would not be the priority, carbon neutrality requires a boost for electrified mobility where battery‐ and plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles are largely evolving as a solution for small‐medium size car segments while fuel cell cars are an attractive option for big size car segments. Hybridization of buses and trucks emerges as a competitive option but they are propelled with bio‐ and synthetic fuels. The transport sector emerges as a major driver for the deployment of hydrogen in the energy sector in the long term.

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“…Effort was made to ensure that local capacity was developed in a partnership between government and academia, with policy needs feeding research agendas. And with the academics plugging into broader modelling communities 28,29 that included academic partners, directors and engineers from energy-related organizations, NGOs, development banks, and civil society.…”

Section: Community Involvementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy system analytics and good governance -U4RIA goals of Energy Modelling for Policy Support

Howells

Quirós-Tortós

Morrison³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Energy modelling is the process of using mathematical models to develop abstractions and then seek insights into future energy systems. It can be an abstract academic activity. Or, it can insert threads that influence our development. We argue therefore, that energy modelling that provides policy support (EMoPS) should not only be grounded in rigorous analytics, but also in good governance principles. As, together with other policy actions, it should be accountable. Almost all aspects of society and much of its impact on the environment are influenced by our use of energy. In this context, EMoPS can inspire, motivate, calibrate, and ‘post assess’ energy policy. But, such modeling is often undertaken by too few analysts under time and resource pressure. Building on the advances of ‘class leaders’, we propose that EMoPS should reach for practical goals — including engagement and accountability with the communities it involves, and those it will later affect. (We use the term Ubuntu, meaning ‘I am because you are’ to capture this interdependency). We argue that Ubuntu, together with retrievability, repeatability, reconstructability, interoperability and auditability (U4RIA) of EMoPS should be used to signal the beginnings of a new default practice. We demonstrate how the U4RIA principles can contribute in practice using recent modelling of aspirational energy futures by Costa Rica as a case study. This modelling effort includes community involvement and interfaces and integrates stakeholder involvement. It leaves a trail that allows for its auditing and accountability, while building capacity and sustainable institutional memory.

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Net-zero Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America: Challenges and Opportunities

Cited by 12 publications

References 26 publications

The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems

The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems

A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector

Energy system analytics and good governance -U4RIA goals of Energy Modelling for Policy Support

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