The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems

Abstract

This study seeks to understand how Argentina's energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will coevolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina's sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina's agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina's river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human‐Earth Systems

“…Exponentially scaling hypothesis generation and exploration require a broader and deeper workforce developed using active commitments to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Figure 8 summarizes the The contributions span various geographic and topical focal areas, as well as capture different system and sector processes (Chowdhury et al, 2021;Quinn et al, 2020;Wessel et al, 2022;Wild et al, 2021).…”

“…As of the time of publication. The contributions span various geographic and topical focal areas, as well as capture different system and sector processes (Chowdhury et al., 2021; Quinn et al., 2020; Wessel et al., 2022; Wild et al., 2021).…”

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

“…Here, we briefly discuss the design and usage of the SSPs as well as their characterization of associated uncertainties. Our discussion can be generalized to other unrelated but similarly constructed scenario-based approaches (e.g., as in Gurgel et al, 2021;Wild et al, 2021).…”

Adaptation of water resources management under climate change

“…Climate change impacts on irrigation water availability is one of the greatest concerns for agricultural sustainability (Elliott et al, 2014). Many studies have attempted to evaluate the effects of climate change on irrigation water demand and crop production at large spatial (e.g., global and national) (e.g., Wild et al, 2021b) and temporal scales (e.g., annual and monthly) (e.g., Woznicki et al, 2015). Researchers also have focused on evaluating adaptations in water and agricultural systems in light of future climate change.…”