Net-zero deep decarbonization pathways in Latin America: Challenges and opportunities

Bataille, Christopher; Waisman, Henri; Briand, Yann; Svensson, Johannes; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Jaramillo, Marcela; Delgado, Ricardo; Argüello, Ricardo; Clarke, Leon; Wild, Thomas; Lallana, Francisco; Bravo, Gonzalo; Nadal, Gustavo; Treut, Gaëlle Le; Godínez, Guido; Quirós-Tortós, Jairo; Pereira, Eunice; Howells, Mark; Buira, Daniel; Tovilla, Jordi; Farbes, Jamil; Ryan, Jones; Ugarte, Daniel de la Torre; Collado, Mauricio; Requejo, Fernando; Gómez, Ximena; Soria, Rafael; Villamar, Daniel; Rochedo, Pedro; Império, Mariana

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2020.100510

Cited by 90 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…An examination of the historical development of renewable energy policy regime in Argentina showed that the policy density-the extent to which a certain policy area is covered by governmental activities-ranked among the lowest compared to Brazil, Canada, Mexico and USA, while the policy intensity-the strength the policy has toward meeting specific goals-showed one of the highest scores (Pischke et al, 2019). There is limited growth prospect in nuclear capacity for Argentina (Santos Da Silva et al, 2019), although some deep decarbonization pathways project an increase in the electricity generation through nuclear power in 2050 (Bataille et al, 2020). The CWA has the potential to provide solar and wind energy as part of this transition to a higher proportion of renewables in the near future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Resources Change in Central-Western Argentina Under the Paris Agreement Warming Targets

2020

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This study documents the projected changes in several components (precipitation, runoff, snow cover and depth, soil moisture) of the hydrological cycle in Central-Western Argentina (CWA) based on the simulations from the IPSL-CM6A-LR model for the warming levels proposed in the Paris Agreement. These warming levels represent the future increase in mean annual temperature of 1.5 and 2°C compared to pre-industrial conditions. A novel regional approach, that uses a set of low-emissions shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) compatible with the Paris Agreement goals, has been applied here for the evaluation of the potential impacts of temperature increase in both the mountainous areas of the Andes and the lowlands on the eastern portion of CWA. Our results show that the timing of reaching the 1.5°C warming level would be between 2032 and 2036 in the CWA lowlands east of the Andes, while this warming level in the Andes mountains of CWA would be 10–15 years earlier as result of the stronger warming with elevation. The higher 2°C warming level would be reached before 2050 in the Andes mountains. Even using the more aggressive mitigation pathways available in the scientific literature (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6), the IPSL-CM6A-LR model ensemble shows a robust drying signal in the wintertime precipitation over the Andes mountains, which is a concerning result because it implies a reduction of the already scarce water resources draining to the adjacent semi-arid foothills. Our results also show that this drying should be linked to the poleward expansion of the Hadley Circulation. In the lowlands farther east from the Andes, the summertime monsoonal precipitation provides the water resources that are projected to increase under the selected emissions pathways. The expected changes in the analyzed components of the hydrological cycle would be strengthened under the 2°C warming level, particularly the decline of snow amount and surface runoff in the Andes. The results of this study provide insights into the expected impacts of the 1.5 and 2°C warming levels in the CWA regional water resources, which may set the stage for the new discussions of possible options to mitigate them at country and regional levels.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Resources Change in Central-Western Argentina Under the Paris Agreement Warming Targets

2020

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“…This has allowed spreading the use of models to different teams without the need to dedicate new funds and time to re-develop complex models. These spillovers sometimes resulted in new versions of the models (e.g., COFFE and BLUES are modified version of the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM model, and from those, the model ELENA was developed Bataille et al (2020)) or the creation of proper international communities that also contribute to the development of the tools (an example of the OSeMOSYS energy system model, part of the CLEWS framework that has been adopted and developed in numerous country studies Howells et al (2011)).…”

Section: Availability Accessibility and Usabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In terms of heterogeneity of CLEW model applications, most of the recently developed models focus on an area where climate change impacts are projected to be high and CLEW interlinkages are highly relevant. Several models explore case studies in Africa (ECHO, CLEWS, WHAT-IF), south Asia (NEST) and South America (BLUES, ELENA Bataille et al (2020)). Moreover, current global models do now provide tools to zoom in the analysis to single countries or basins (IMAGE, GCAM).…”

Section: Clew Linkage To Sustainable Development Goals and Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-Land-Energy-Water Nexus Models Across Scales: Progress, Gaps and Best Accessibility Practices

Vinca

Riahi

Rowe

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Approaches that integrate feedback between climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) have progressed significantly in scope and complexity. The so-called nexus approaches have shown their usefulness in assessing strategies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in the contexts of increasing demands, resource scarcity, and climate change. However, most nexus analyses omit some important inter-linkages that could actually be addressed. The omissions often stem from technical and practical considerations, but also from limited dissemination of new open-source frameworks incorporating recent advances. We review and present a set of models that can meet the needs of decision makers for analysis tools capable of addressing a broad range of nexus questions. Particular attention is given to model accessibility, usability and community support. The other objective of this review is to discuss research gaps, and critical needs and opportunities for further model development from a scientific viewpoint. We explore at different scales where and why some nexus interactions are most relevant. We find that both very small scale and global models tend to neglect some CLEW interactions, but for different reasons. The former rarely include climate impacts, which are often marginal at the local level, while the latter mostly lack some aspects because of the complexity of large full CLEW systems at the global level.

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“…Along with Sub-Saharan Africa, the LAC region is expected to account for the bulk of future global agricultural land expansion (OECD/FAO, 2015; Rosa et al, 2020). As countries around the world seek to decarbonize their economies consistent with their pledges in the Paris Climate Agreement, the LAC region's land resources could play a key role by reducing deforestation and by producing bioenergy crops for regional and global consumption (Bataille et al, 2020;da Silva et al, 2019;Dallemand et al, 2015;Scarlat et al, 2015). This demand for land resources has non-trivial implications for food security (Fuhrman et al, 2020;Fujimori et al, 2019), as food crops (for both domestic consumption and export) will have to compete with purpose-grown biomass crops for land and water resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems

et al. 2021

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This study seeks to understand how Argentina's energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will coevolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina's sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina's agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina's river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

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Net-zero deep decarbonization pathways in Latin America: Challenges and opportunities

Cited by 90 publications

References 20 publications

Water Resources Change in Central-Western Argentina Under the Paris Agreement Warming Targets

Water Resources Change in Central-Western Argentina Under the Paris Agreement Warming Targets

Climate-Land-Energy-Water Nexus Models Across Scales: Progress, Gaps and Best Accessibility Practices

The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems

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