Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Binsted, Matthew; Edmonds, James A.; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Argüello, Ricardo; Cadena, Alberto; Delgado, Ricardo; Feijoo, Felipe; Lucena, André F.P.; McJeon, Haewon; Miralles‐Wilhelm, Fernando; Sharma, Anjali

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab506d

Cited by 54 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The largest chunks would be added by Brazil (1.9 GtCO 2 ) and Mexico (1.1GtCO 2 ). This finding is consistent with previous results putting into question the fitness of new gas power plants as a bridge towards intermittent renewable energy in the region (Binsted et al 2018). Building all planned power plants in LAC would add as much emissions as what all existing plants would emit over 28 years.…”

Section: Committed Emissions Of Operating and Planned Generatorssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Ultimately, assessing the compatibility of any fossil fuel power plant addition with the Paris Agreement goals is necessarily more complex than the simple assessments presented in this paper. The key for governments to do so might be to develop domestic longterm power generation development strategies that start from the goal of achieving net zero carbon power generation by 2050, and work backward to establish sectoral roadmaps towards that goal (Binsted et al, 2018;Fay et al, 2015;Pathak, 2017;Waisman et al, 2019). Countries in the region and internationally have already started using such tools to decide on the expansion plans and the scheduled decommissioning of existing coal power plants, taking into account social, technical and economic impacts of doing so (O'Ryan, 2019; Wacket, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Committed Emissions and the Risk of Stranded Assets from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Lecuyer¹,

González-Mahecha²,

Hallack³

et al. 2019

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'AFD ont pour but de diffuser rapidement les résultats de travaux en cours. Ils s'adressent principalement aux chercheurs, aux étudiants et au monde académique. Ils couvrent l'ensemble des sujets de travail de l'AFD : analyse économique, théorie économique, analyse des politiques publiques, sciences de l'ingénieur, sociologie, géographie et anthropologie. Une publication dans les Papiers de Recherche de l'AFD n'en exclut aucune autre. Le groupe Agence française de développement (AFD) est un établissement public qui finance, accompagne et accélère les transitions vers un monde plus juste et durable. Plateforme française d'aide publique au développement et d'investissement de développement durable, nous construisons avec nos partenaires des solutions partagées, avec et pour les populations du Sud. Nos équipes sont engagées dans plus de 4 000 projets sur le terrain, dans les Outre-mer et dans 115 pays, pour les biens communs de l'humanité-le climat, la biodiversité, la paix, l'égalité femmeshommes, l'éducation ou encore la santé. Nous contribuons ainsi à l'engagement de la France et des Français en faveur des Objectifs de développement durable. Pour un monde en commun. Les opinions exprimées dans ce papier sont celles de son (ses) auteur(s) et ne reflètent pas nécessairement celles de l'AFD. Ce document est publié sous l'entière responsabilité de son (ses) auteur(s). Les Papiers de Recherche sont téléchargeables sur : https://www.afd.fr/fr/ressources AFD Research Papers AFD Research Papers are intended to rapidly disseminate findings of ongoing work and mainly target researchers, students and the wider academic community. They cover the full range of AFD work, including: economic analysis, economic theory, policy analysis, engineering sciences, sociology, geography and anthropology. AFD Research Papers and other publications are not mutually exclusive. The Agence Française de Développement (AFD) Group is a public entity which finances, supports and expedites transitions toward a more just and sustainable world. As a French overseas aid platform for sustainable development and investment, we and our partners create shared solutions, with and for the people of the global South. Active in more than 4,000 projects in the French overseas departments and some 115 countries, our teams strive to promote health, education and gender equality, and are working to protect our common resources-peace, education, health, biodiversity and a stable climate. It's our way of honoring the commitment France and the French people have made to fulfill the Sustainable Development Goals. Towards a world in common. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of AFD. It is therefore published under the sole responsibility of its author(s).

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Section: Committed Emissions Of Operating and Planned Generatorssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Committed Emissions and the Risk of Stranded Assets from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Lecuyer¹,

González-Mahecha²,

Hallack³

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Ultimately, assessing the compatibility of any fossil fuel power plant addition with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement is necessarily more complex than the simple assessments presented in this paper. The key for governments to do so might be to develop domestic long-term power generation development strategies that start from the goal of achieving net zero carbon power generation by 2050, and work backward to establish sectoral roadmaps towards that goal , Pathak 2017, Binsted et al 2019, Waisman et al 2019. Countries in the region and internationally have already started using such tools to decide on the expansion plans and the scheduled decommissioning of existing coal power plants, taking into account social, technical and economic impacts of doing so (O'Ryan 2019, Wacket 2019…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…But current energy planning is only partially consistent with commitments, and would result in the addition of new fossil fuel power plants in the region (OLADE 2018, Cadena 2019. Worse, current NDCs are not aligned with the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement (Iyer et al 2015, Rogelj et al 2016, UNEP 2017, Binsted et al 2019, so that even if countries did implement their NDCs, they would continue to add more fossil fuel power plants than what would be consistent with the achievement of the international temperature targets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Committed emissions and the risk of stranded assets from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

González-Mahecha

Lecuyer

Hallack

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has the least carbon-intensive electricity sector of any region in the world, as hydropower remains the largest source of electricity. But are current plans consistent with the international climate change goals laid out in the Paris Agreement? In this paper, we assess committed CO 2 emissions from existing and planned power plants in LAC. Those are the carbon emissions that would result from the operation of fossil-fueled power plants during their typical lifetime. Committed emissions from existing power plants are close to 6.9 Gt of CO 2 . Building and operating all power plants that are announced, authorized, being procured, or under construction would result in 6.7 Gt of CO 2 of additional commitments (for a total of 13.6 Gt of CO 2 ). Committed emissions are above average IPCC assessments of cumulative emissions from power generation in LAC consistent with international temperature targets. To meet average carbon budgets from IPCC, 10%-16% of existing fossil-fueled power plants would need to be closed before the end of their technical lifespan. Our results suggest that building more fossil-fueled power plants in the region could jeopardize the achievement of the Paris Agreement temperature targets.

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System analysis of the bio‐based economy in Colombia: A bottom‐up energy system model and scenario analysis

Younis

Benders

Delgado

et al. 2020

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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The transition to a sustainable bio‐based economy is perceived as a valid path towards low‐carbon development for emerging economies that have rich biomass resources. In the case of Colombia, the role of biomass has been tackled through qualitative roadmaps and regional climate policy assessments. However, neither of these approaches has addressed the complexity of the bio‐based economy systematically in the wider context of emission mitigation and energy and chemicals supply. In response to this limitation, we extended a bottom‐up energy system optimization model by adding a comprehensive database of novel bio‐based value chains. We included advanced road and aviation biofuels, (bio)chemicals, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and integrated biorefinery configurations. A scenario analysis was conducted for the period 2015–2050, which reflected uncertainties in the capacity for technological learning, climate policy ambitions, and land availability for energy crops. Our results indicate that biomass can play an important, even if variable, role in supplying 315–760 PJ/y of modern bio‐based products. In pursuit of a deep decarbonization trajectory, the large‐scale mobilization of biomass resources can reduce the cost of the energy system by up to 11 billion $/year, the marginal abatement cost by 62%, and the potential reliance on imports of oil and chemicals in the future. The mitigation potential of BECCS can reach 24–29% of the cumulative avoided emissions between 2015 and 2050. The proposed system analysis framework can provide detailed quantitative information on the role of biomass in low carbon development of emerging economies. © 2020 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Cited by 54 publications

References 36 publications

Committed Emissions and the Risk of Stranded Assets from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Committed Emissions and the Risk of Stranded Assets from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Committed emissions and the risk of stranded assets from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

System analysis of the bio‐based economy in Colombia: A bottom‐up energy system model and scenario analysis

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