SignificanceRegional quantification of feasibility and effectiveness of forest strategies to mitigate climate change should integrate observations and mechanistic ecosystem process models with future climate, CO2, disturbances from fire, and management. Here, we demonstrate this approach in a high biomass region, and found that reforestation, afforestation, lengthened harvest cycles on private lands, and restricting harvest on public lands increased net ecosystem carbon balance by 56% by 2100, with the latter two actions contributing the most. Forest sector emissions tracked with our life cycle assessment model decreased by 17%, partially meeting emissions reduction goals. Harvest residue bioenergy use did not reduce short-term emissions. Cobenefits include increased water availability and biodiversity of forest species. Our improved analysis framework can be used in other temperate regions.

Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about the potential for forest mortality to impact forest structure, forest ecosystem services, and the economic vitality of communities in the coming decades. We used the Community Land Model (CLM) to determine forest vulnerability to mortality from drought and fire by the year 2049. We modified CLM to represent 13 major forest types in the western United States and ran simulations at a 4‐km grid resolution, driven with climate projections from two general circulation models under one emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). We developed metrics of vulnerability to short‐term extreme and prolonged drought based on annual allocation to stem growth and net primary productivity. We calculated fire vulnerability based on changes in simulated future area burned relative to historical area burned. Simulated historical drought vulnerability was medium to high in areas with observations of recent drought‐related mortality. Comparisons of observed and simulated historical area burned indicate simulated future fire vulnerability could be underestimated by 3% in the Sierra Nevada and overestimated by 3% in the Rocky Mountains. Projections show that water‐limited forests in the Rocky Mountains, Southwest, and Great Basin regions will be the most vulnerable to future drought‐related mortality, and vulnerability to future fire will be highest in the Sierra Nevada and portions of the Rocky Mountains. High carbon‐density forests in the Pacific coast and western Cascades regions are projected to be the least vulnerable to either drought or fire. Importantly, differences in climate projections lead to only 1% of the domain with conflicting low and high vulnerability to fire and no area with conflicting drought vulnerability. Our drought vulnerability metrics could be incorporated as probabilistic mortality rates in earth system models, enabling more robust estimates of the feedbacks between the land and atmosphere over the 21st century.

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91I.91II.92III.92IV.92V.94VI.9696References96 Summary Recently, widespread piñon pine die‐off occurred in the southwestern United States. Here we synthesize observational studies of this event and compare findings to expected relationships with biotic and abiotic factors. Agreement exists on the occurrence of drought, presence of bark beetles and increased mortality of larger trees. However, studies disagree about the influences of stem density, elevation and other factors, perhaps related to study design, location and impact of extreme drought. Detailed information about bark beetles is seldom reported and their role is poorly understood. Our analysis reveals substantial limits to our knowledge regarding the processes that produce mortality patterns across space and time, indicating a poor ability to forecast mortality in response to expected increases in future droughts.

We studied survival and causes of mortality of radiocollared cougars (Puma concolor) on the Greater Yellowstone Northern Range (GYNR) prior to (1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994) and after wolf (Canis lupus) reintroduction (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) and evaluated temporal, spatial, and environmental factors that explain variation in adult, subadult, and kitten survival. Using Program MARK and multimodel inference, we modeled cougar survival based on demographic status, season, and landscape attributes. Our best models for adult and independent subadults indicated that females survived better than males and survival increased with age until cougars reached older ages. Lower elevations and increasing density of roads, particularly in areas open to cougar hunting north of Yellowstone National Park (YNP), increased mortality risks for cougars on the GYNR. Indices of ungulate biomass, cougar and wolf population size, winter severity, rainfall, and individual characteristics such as the presence of dependent young, age class, and use of Park or Wilderness were not important predictors of survival. Kitten survival increased with age, was lower during winter, increased with increasing minimum estimates of elk calf biomass, and increased with increasing density of adult male cougars. Using our best model, we mapped adult cougar survival on the GYNR landscape. Results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated a good model fit for both female (area under the curve [AUC] ¼ 0.81, 95%CI ¼ 0.70-0.92, n ¼ 35 locations) and male cougars (AUC ¼ 0.84, 95%CI ¼ 0.74-0.94, n ¼ 49 locations) relative to hunter harvest locations in our study area. Using minimum estimates of survival necessary to sustain the study population, we developed a source-sink surface and we identify several measures that resource management agencies can take to enhance cougar population management based on a source-sink strategy. ß 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Forest carbon sequestration via forest preservation can be a viable climate change mitigation strategy. Here, we identify forests in the western conterminous United States with high potential carbon sequestration and low vulnerability to future drought and fire, as simulated using the Community Land Model and two high carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) climate models. High‐productivity, low‐vulnerability forests have the potential to sequester up to 5,450 Tg CO2 equivalent (1,485 Tg C) by 2099, which is up to 20% of the global mitigation potential previously identified for all temperate and boreal forests, or up to ~6 yr of current regional fossil fuel emissions. Additionally, these forests currently have high above‐ and belowground carbon density, high tree species richness, and a high proportion of critical habitat for endangered vertebrate species, indicating a strong potential to support biodiversity into the future and promote ecosystem resilience to climate change. We stress that some forest lands have low carbon sequestration potential but high biodiversity, underscoring the need to consider multiple criteria when designing a land preservation portfolio. Our work demonstrates how process models and ecological criteria can be used to prioritize landscape preservation for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate.

We assessed whether use of 2 methods, intensive very high frequency (VHF) radiotelemetry and Global Positioning System (GPS) cluster sampling, yielded similar estimates of cougar (Puma concolor) kill rates in Yellowstone National Park, 1998–2005. We additionally determined biases (underestimation or overestimation of rates) resulting from each method. We used modeling to evaluate what characteristics of clusters best predicted a kill versus no kill and further evaluated which predictor(s) minimized effort and the number of missed kills. We conducted 16 VHF ground predation sequences resulting in 37 kill intervals (KIs) and 21 GPS sequences resulting in 84 KIs on 6 solitary adult females, 4 maternal females, and 5 adult males. Kill rates (days/kill and biomass [kg] killed/day) did not differ between VHF and GPS predation sampling methods for maternal females, solitary adult females, and adult males. Sixteen of 142 (11.3%) kills detected via GPS clusters were missed through VHF ground‐based sampling, and the kill rate was underestimated by an average of 5.2 (95% CI = 3.8–6.6) days/kill over all cougar social classes. Five of 142 (3.5%) kills identified by GPS cluster sampling were incorrectly identified as the focal individual's kill from scavenging, and the kill rate was overestimated within the adult male social class by an average of 5.8 (95% CI = 3.0–8.5) days/ungulate kill. The number of nights (locations between 2000 hours and 0500 hours) a cougar spent at a cluster was the most efficient variable at predicting predation, minimizing the missed kills, and minimizing number of extra clusters that needed to be searched. In Yellowstone National Park, where competing carnivores displaced cougars from their kills, it was necessary to search extra sites where a kill may not have been present to ensure we did not miss small, ungulate prey kills or kills with displacement. Using predictions from models to assign unvisited clusters as no kill, small prey kill, or large prey kill can bias downward the number of kills a cougar made and bias upward kills made by competitors that displace cougars or scavenge cougar kills. Our findings emphasize that field visitation is crucial in determining displacement and scavenging events that can result in biases when using GPS cluster methods in multicarnivore systems.

Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle.