Climate, weather, and recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the western United States

Creeden, Eric P.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Buotte, Polly C.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.051

Cited by 120 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…The delta method used to locally downscale climate model inputs only accounts for changes to the mean climate signal, and not to shifts in synoptic-scale climate patterns outside of observed weather [90,135]. Finally, neither of our models included insects as a disturbance agent, although insect outbreaks are predicted to increase with warmer and drier climates [136,137]. Significant insect-caused tree mortality has already occurred in piñon pines in the Southwest [124], and insect disturbance, if modeled, could influence forest dynamics.…”

Section: Model Influences On Outcomesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Land Management Buffer Impacts of Climate Changes and Altered Fire Regimes on Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States?

Loehman

Flatley

Holsinger

et al. 2018

Forests

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Climate changes and associated shifts in ecosystems and fire regimes present enormous challenges for the management of landscapes in the Southwestern US. A central question is whether management strategies can maintain or promote desired ecological conditions under projected future climates. We modeled wildfire and forest responses to climate changes and management activities using two ecosystem process models: FireBGCv2, simulated for the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, and LANDIS-II, simulated for the Kaibab Plateau, Arizona. We modeled contemporary and two future climates-"Warm-Dry" (CCSM4 RCP 4.5) and "Hot-Arid" (HadGEM2ES RCP 8.5)-and four levels of management including fire suppression alone, a current treatment strategy, and two intensified treatment strategies. We found that Hot-Arid future climate resulted in a fundamental, persistent reorganization of ecosystems in both study areas, including biomass reduction, compositional shifts, and altered forest structure. Climate changes increased the potential for high-severity fire in the Jemez study area, but did not impact fire regime characteristics in the Kaibab. Intensified management treatments somewhat reduced wildfire frequency and severity; however, management strategies did not prevent the reorganization of forest ecosystems in either landscape. Our results suggest that novel approaches may be required to manage future forests for desired conditions.

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Section: Model Influences On Outcomesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Land Management Buffer Impacts of Climate Changes and Altered Fire Regimes on Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States?

Loehman

Flatley

Holsinger

et al. 2018

Forests

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“…Warming could also indirectly decrease tree growth by increasing herbivorous arthropod abundances [14]. Outbreaks of herbivorous pests, such as the pine processionary moth [15] and the mountain pine beetle [16], have become more frequent due to climate change, sometimes turning forests from carbon sinks into carbon sources by killing trees [17]. However, chronic herbivory-sub-lethal feeding by native arthropods throughout trees' lives, typically in low abundances-has rarely been studied.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban warming reduces aboveground carbon storage

et al. 2016

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A substantial amount of global carbon is stored in mature trees. However, no experiments to date test how warming affects mature tree carbon storage. Using a unique, citywide, factorial experiment, we investigated how warming and insect herbivory affected physiological function and carbon sequestration (carbon stored per year) of mature trees. Urban warming increased herbivorous arthropod abundance on trees, but these herbivores had negligible effects on tree carbon sequestration. Instead, urban warming was associated with an estimated 12% loss of carbon sequestration, in part because photosynthesis was reduced at hotter sites. Ecosystem service assessments that do not consider urban conditions may overestimate urban tree carbon storage. Because urban and global warming are becoming more intense, our results suggest that urban trees will sequester even less carbon in the future.

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“…Several studies have related the typical habitats of great gray owl, and their disturbance regimes, to climate change (e.g., McNulty and Aber 2001;Weed et al 2013;Creeden et al 2014). Wildfire and bark beetle outbreak are known to be highly sensitive to changes in precipitation early in the year as well as summer and winter temperatures (Weed et al 2013;Creeden et al 2014).…”

Section: Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wildfire and bark beetle outbreak are known to be highly sensitive to changes in precipitation early in the year as well as summer and winter temperatures (Weed et al 2013;Creeden et al 2014). Increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in summer can result in increased stress on boreal forest vegetative species making them more susceptible to insect outbreaks and wildfire.…”

Section: Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Framework for Spatio-temporal Climate Change Impact Assessment for Terrestrial Wildlife

Lankford-Bingle

Svancara

Vierling

2015

Environmental Management

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We describe a first step framework for climate change species' impact assessments that produces spatially and temporally heterogeneous models of climate impacts. Case study results are provided for great gray owl (Strix nebulosa) in Idaho as an example of framework application. This framework applies species-specific sensitivity weights to spatial and seasonal models of climate exposure to produce spatial and seasonal models of climate impact. We also evaluated three methods of calculating sensitivity by comparing spatial models of combined exposure and sensitivity. We found the methods used to calculated sensitivity showed little difference, except where sensitivity was directional (i.e., more sensitive to an increase in temperature than a decrease). This approach may assist in the development of State Wildlife Action Plans and other wildlife management plans in the face of potential future climate change.

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Climate, weather, and recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the western United States

Cited by 120 publications

References 54 publications

Can Land Management Buffer Impacts of Climate Changes and Altered Fire Regimes on Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States?

Can Land Management Buffer Impacts of Climate Changes and Altered Fire Regimes on Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States?

Urban warming reduces aboveground carbon storage

A New Framework for Spatio-temporal Climate Change Impact Assessment for Terrestrial Wildlife

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