Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests

Law, B. E.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Berner, L. T.; Kent, J.; Buotte, Polly C.; Harmon, Mark E.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1720064115

Cited by 211 publications

(232 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…, Law et al. , Buotte et al. 2019b), which improved model agreement with historical observations as compared with more general forest type parameterizations (Buotte et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Buotte

Law

Ripple

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Forest carbon sequestration via forest preservation can be a viable climate change mitigation strategy. Here, we identify forests in the western conterminous United States with high potential carbon sequestration and low vulnerability to future drought and fire, as simulated using the Community Land Model and two high carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) climate models. High‐productivity, low‐vulnerability forests have the potential to sequester up to 5,450 Tg CO2 equivalent (1,485 Tg C) by 2099, which is up to 20% of the global mitigation potential previously identified for all temperate and boreal forests, or up to ~6 yr of current regional fossil fuel emissions. Additionally, these forests currently have high above‐ and belowground carbon density, high tree species richness, and a high proportion of critical habitat for endangered vertebrate species, indicating a strong potential to support biodiversity into the future and promote ecosystem resilience to climate change. We stress that some forest lands have low carbon sequestration potential but high biodiversity, underscoring the need to consider multiple criteria when designing a land preservation portfolio. Our work demonstrates how process models and ecological criteria can be used to prioritize landscape preservation for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate.

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“…, Law et al. , Buotte et al. 2019b), which improved model agreement with historical observations as compared with more general forest type parameterizations (Buotte et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Buotte

Law

Ripple

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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“…Law et al (2018) modified CLM physiological parameters to represent major forest types in Oregon to capture species-specific physiological responses to environmental variables. CLM's default plant functional types (PFTs) represent broad plant categories, such as needle leaf evergreen temperate trees, broadleaf deciduous temperate trees, and C3 grasses.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Forests in the western United States support high species diversity (Halpern & Spies, 1995;Kline et al, 2016) and include some of the highest carbon-density forests on earth (Law & Waring, 2015;Law et al, 2018). Some of these forests are under increasing stress from accelerated rates of drought-related mortality (Allen et al, 2010;Anderegg et al, 2015;van Mantgem et al, 2009) and wildfires (Littell, Mckenzie, Peterson, & Westerling, 2009), bringing urgency to the question of where are forests likely to be most vulnerable to mortality under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of their high carbon-density, longevity, mesic growing conditions, and relatively long fire return intervals, these forests have the greatest potential to sequester carbon of any forests in the western United States (Law et al, 2018). Therefore, regional policies that promote forest stewardship as a natural solution to climate change mitigation (Griscom et al, 2017) should be investigated.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Near‐future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States

Buotte

Levis²,

Law

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about the potential for forest mortality to impact forest structure, forest ecosystem services, and the economic vitality of communities in the coming decades. We used the Community Land Model (CLM) to determine forest vulnerability to mortality from drought and fire by the year 2049. We modified CLM to represent 13 major forest types in the western United States and ran simulations at a 4‐km grid resolution, driven with climate projections from two general circulation models under one emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). We developed metrics of vulnerability to short‐term extreme and prolonged drought based on annual allocation to stem growth and net primary productivity. We calculated fire vulnerability based on changes in simulated future area burned relative to historical area burned. Simulated historical drought vulnerability was medium to high in areas with observations of recent drought‐related mortality. Comparisons of observed and simulated historical area burned indicate simulated future fire vulnerability could be underestimated by 3% in the Sierra Nevada and overestimated by 3% in the Rocky Mountains. Projections show that water‐limited forests in the Rocky Mountains, Southwest, and Great Basin regions will be the most vulnerable to future drought‐related mortality, and vulnerability to future fire will be highest in the Sierra Nevada and portions of the Rocky Mountains. High carbon‐density forests in the Pacific coast and western Cascades regions are projected to be the least vulnerable to either drought or fire. Importantly, differences in climate projections lead to only 1% of the domain with conflicting low and high vulnerability to fire and no area with conflicting drought vulnerability. Our drought vulnerability metrics could be incorporated as probabilistic mortality rates in earth system models, enabling more robust estimates of the feedbacks between the land and atmosphere over the 21st century.

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“…Western US carbon stocks were calculated from over 80,000 forest inventory plots (FIA) containing over 2.5 million tree records in the region following methods developed in previous studies (Hudiburg et al, ; Hudiburg, Law, Wirth, & Luyssaert, ; Law et al, ; Law, Hudiburg, & Luyssaert, ). Uncertainty estimates for total regional emissions were calculated using a propagation of error approach accounting for error in biomass allometrics and the MTBS fire perimeters (Law et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fixing a snag in carbon emissions estimates from wildfires

Stenzel

Bartowitz

Hartman

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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Wildfire is an essential earth‐system process, impacting ecosystem processes and the carbon cycle. Forest fires are becoming more frequent and severe, yet gaps exist in the modeling of fire on vegetation and carbon dynamics. Strategies for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from wildfires include increasing tree harvest, largely based on the public assumption that fires burn live forests to the ground, despite observations indicating that less than 5% of mature tree biomass is actually consumed. This misconception is also reflected though excessive combustion of live trees in models. Here, we show that regional emissions estimates using widely implemented combustion coefficients are 59%–83% higher than emissions based on field observations. Using unique field datasets from before and after wildfires and an improved ecosystem model, we provide strong evidence that these large overestimates can be reduced by using realistic biomass combustion factors and by accurately quantifying biomass in standing dead trees that decompose over decades to centuries after fire (“snags”). Most model development focuses on area burned; our results reveal that accurately representing combustion is also essential for quantifying fire impacts on ecosystems. Using our improvements, we find that western US forest fires have emitted 851 ± 228 Tg CO2 (~half of alternative estimates) over the last 17 years, which is minor compared to 16,200 Tg CO2 from fossil fuels across the region.

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Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests

Cited by 211 publications

References 39 publications

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Near‐future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States

Fixing a snag in carbon emissions estimates from wildfires

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