Near‐future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States

Buotte, Polly C.; Levis, Samuel; Law, B. E.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Rupp, David E.; Kent, J.

doi:10.1111/gcb.14490

Cited by 79 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 85 publications

(145 reference statements)

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“…As detailed in Buotte et al. (2019b), simulated carbon fluxes agreed well with a variety of observations. Simulated net primary productivity was within the range of observed and satellite‐derived net primary productivity at the state level.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 76%

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Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Buotte

Law

Ripple

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Forest carbon sequestration via forest preservation can be a viable climate change mitigation strategy. Here, we identify forests in the western conterminous United States with high potential carbon sequestration and low vulnerability to future drought and fire, as simulated using the Community Land Model and two high carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) climate models. High‐productivity, low‐vulnerability forests have the potential to sequester up to 5,450 Tg CO2 equivalent (1,485 Tg C) by 2099, which is up to 20% of the global mitigation potential previously identified for all temperate and boreal forests, or up to ~6 yr of current regional fossil fuel emissions. Additionally, these forests currently have high above‐ and belowground carbon density, high tree species richness, and a high proportion of critical habitat for endangered vertebrate species, indicating a strong potential to support biodiversity into the future and promote ecosystem resilience to climate change. We stress that some forest lands have low carbon sequestration potential but high biodiversity, underscoring the need to consider multiple criteria when designing a land preservation portfolio. Our work demonstrates how process models and ecological criteria can be used to prioritize landscape preservation for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 76%

“…Downscaling and disaggregation details are provided in Buotte et al. (2019b). Furthermore, we used prescribed harvest to insure the model represented present‐day stand ages (Pan et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Buotte

Law

Ripple

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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“…, Buotte et al. ). For example, conversion to nonforest can occur following unusually large or short‐interval burns that reduce seed supply and constrain postfire tree regeneration (Brown and Johnstone , Kemp et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Can wildland fire management alter 21st‐century subalpine fire and forests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA?

Hansen

Abendroth

Rammer³

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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In subalpine forests of the western United States that historically experienced infrequent, high‐severity fire, whether fire management can shape 21st‐century fire regimes and forest dynamics to meet natural resource objectives is not known. Managed wildfire use (i.e., allowing lightning‐ignited fires to burn when risk is low instead of suppressing them) is one approach for maintaining natural fire regimes and fostering mosaics of forest structure, stand age, and tree‐species composition, while protecting people and property. However, little guidance exists for where and when this strategy may be effective with climate change. We simulated most of the contiguous forest in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA to ask: (1) how would subalpine fires and forest structure be different if fires had not been suppressed during the last three decades? And (2) what is the relative influence of climate change vs. fire management strategy on future fire and forests? We contrasted fire and forests from 1989 to 2098 under two fire management scenarios (managed wildfire use and fire suppression), two general circulation models (CNRM‐CM5 and GFDL‐ESM2M), and two representative concentration pathways (8.5 and 4.5). We found little difference between management scenarios in the number, size, or severity of fires during the last three decades. With 21st‐century warming, fire activity increased rapidly, particularly after 2050, and followed nearly identical trajectories in both management scenarios. Area burned per year between 2018 and 2099 was 1,700% greater than in the last three decades (1989–2017). Large areas of forest were abruptly lost; only 65% of the original 40,178 ha of forest remained by 2098. However, forests stayed connected and fuels were abundant enough to support profound increases in burning through this century. Our results indicate that strategies emphasizing managed wildfire use, rather than suppression, will not alter climate‐induced changes to fire and forests in subalpine landscapes of western North America. This suggests that managers may continue to have flexibility to strategically suppress subalpine fires without concern for long‐term consequences, in distinct contrast with dry conifer forests of the Rocky Mountains and mixed conifer forest of California where maintaining low fuel loads is essential for sustaining frequent, low‐severity surface fire regimes.

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“…piñon versus juniper); a difference not captured by a simplified parameterization (Gaylord et al, 2013). These disturbances are likely to shift the distribution of species and alter the composition of vegetation communities (Coop et al, 2016;Liang et al, 2017b), which could further compound the carbon uptake discrepancies that occur with the generalized parameterization under climate change (Buotte et al, 2018;Kolus et al, 2019). These disturbances are likely to shift the distribution of species and alter the composition of vegetation communities (Coop et al, 2016;Liang et al, 2017b), which could further compound the carbon uptake discrepancies that occur with the generalized parameterization under climate change (Buotte et al, 2018;Kolus et al, 2019).…”

Section: Implications Of Model Parameterization Choice At Biome Scalementioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, the taxonomic unit of both legal environmental frameworks (e.g. The direction and magnitude of different error sources may change with projected climate, yielding high uncertainty under projected changes in climate (Buotte et al, 2018;McDowell et al, 2015;McMahon et al, 2011;Purves & Pacala, 2008). Forest ecosystem management strategies for a range of objectives, including habitat and ecosystem service provision, are in part dependent upon understanding how the species that comprise ecosystems will respond to global change factors (Gamfeldt et al, 2013;Lindenmayer et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Species‐Specific Information in Models Improves Regional Projections Under Climate Change

Remy

Krofcheck

Keyser

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Models commonly used to project forest carbon response to climate change reduce biodiversity to a small number of plant functional types or plant functional traits for the sake of computational efficiency at large spatial scales. We simulated the climate sensitivity of the dominant woody vegetation types in New Mexico using both a generalized functional type and a species‐specific model parameterization. Both parameterizations achieve reasonable current carbon uptake rates and aboveground biomass amount at the ecosystem scale. When vegetation types are subjected to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation, the generalized parameterization differs substantially from the species‐specific parameterization by homogenizing the diversity of adaptations for dealing with higher temperature and drought, leading to divergent responses under changing climate. We recommend integrating species‐specific information, when available, to improve projections of climate change impacts on forested ecosystems to develop robust ecosystem management strategies at regional scales.

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Near‐future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States

Cited by 79 publications

References 85 publications

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Can wildland fire management alter 21st‐century subalpine fire and forests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA?

Integrating Species‐Specific Information in Models Improves Regional Projections Under Climate Change

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