The widely used Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) monthly temperature dataset is available in two formats—non-homogenized and homogenized. Since 2011, this homogenized dataset has been updated almost daily by applying the “Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm” (PHA) to the non-homogenized datasets. Previous studies found that the PHA can perform well at correcting synthetic time series when certain artificial biases are introduced. However, its performance with real world data has been less well studied. Therefore, the homogenized GHCN datasets (Version 3 and 4) were downloaded almost daily over a 10-year period (2011-2021) yielding 3689 different updates to the datasets. The different breakpoints identified were analyzed for a set of stations from 24 European countries for which station history metadata were available. A remarkable inconsistency in the identified breakpoints (and hence adjustments applied) was revealed. Of the adjustments applied for GHCN Version 4, 64% (61% for Version 3) were identified on less than 25% of runs, while only 16% of the adjustments (21% for Version 3) were identified consistently for more than 75% of the runs. The consistency of PHA adjustments improved when the breakpoints corresponded to documented station history metadata events. However, only 19% of the breakpoints (18% for Version 3) were associated with a documented event within 1 year, and 67% (69% for Version 3) were not associated with any documented event. Therefore, while the PHA remains a useful tool in the community’s homogenization toolbox, many of the PHA adjustments applied to the homogenized GHCN dataset may have been spurious. Using station metadata to assess the reliability of PHA adjustments might potentially help to identify some of these spurious adjustments.
In order to reduce the amount of non-climatic biases of air temperature in each weather station’s record by comparing it to neighboring stations, global land surface air temperature datasets are routinely adjusted using statistical homogenization to minimize such biases. However, homogenization can unintentionally introduce new non-climatic biases due to an often-overlooked statistical problem known as “urban blending” or “aliasing of trend biases”. This issue arises when the homogenization process inadvertently mixes urbanization biases of neighboring stations into the adjustments applied to each station record. As a result, urbanization biases of the original unhomogenized temperature records are spread throughout the homogenized data. To evaluate the extent of this phenomenon, the homogenized temperature data for two countries (Japan and United States) are analyzed. Using the Japanese stations in the widely used Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) dataset, it is first confirmed that the unhomogenized Japanese temperature data are strongly affected by urbanization bias (possibly ~60% of the long-term warming). The United States Historical Climatology Network dataset (USHCN) contains a relatively large amount of long, rural station records and therefore is less affected by urbanization bias. Nonetheless, even for this relatively rural dataset, urbanization bias could account for ~20% of the long-term warming. It is then shown that urban blending is a major problem for the homogenized data for both countries. The IPCC’s low estimate of urbanization bias in the global temperature data based on homogenized temperature records may have been biased low due to urban blending. Recommendations on how future homogenization efforts could be modified to reduce urban blending are discussed.
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