The MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed by IIASA has been a central tool of energy-environment-economy systems analysis in the global scientific and policy arena. It played a major role in the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); it provided marker scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared SocioEconomic Pathways (SSPs); and it underpinned the analysis of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA). Alas, to provide relevant analysis for current and future challenges, numerical models of human and earth systems need to support higher spatial and temporal resolution, facilitate integration of data sources and methodologies across disciplines, and become open and transparent regarding the underlying data, methods, and the scientific workflow. In this manuscript, we present the building blocks of a new framework for an integrated assessment modeling platform; the "ecosystem" comprises: i) an open-source GAMS implementation of the MESSAGE energy++ system model integrated with the MACRO economic model; ii) a Java/database backend for version-controlled data management, iii) interfaces for the scientific programming languages Python & R for efficient input data and results processing workflows; and iv) a web-browser-based user interface for model/scenario management and intuitive "drag-and-drop" visualization of results. The framework aims to facilitate the highest level of openness for scientific analysis, bridging the need for transparency with efficient data processing and powerful numerical solvers. The platform is geared towards easy integration of data sources and models across disciplines, spatial scales and temporal disaggregation levels. All tools apply best-practice in collaborative software development, and comprehensive documentation of all building blocks and scripts is generated directly from the GAMS equations and the Java/Python/R source code.
This research assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We illustrate how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Decarbonization will lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide (22-32 million fewer disabilityadjusted life years in 2030). At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energyefficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100-600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1-0.7% of GDP). Novel aspects of this work include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2°C climate target. • Hence, the scenarios stretch the potential development of the energy system in several dimensions by fulfilling the individual objectives to varying degrees of satisfaction: Weak, Intermediate, and Stringent (see Figure 1). • Because of the major cuts in PM2.5 that decarbonization brings about (left-hand panel of Figure 2), energyrelated health impacts worldwide are reduced by up to 22 million DALYs in 2030 compared to our baseline scenario, which assumes that no new climate policies are implemented and that only currently legislated and planned air pollution policies are enacted (the CLE case).
Abstract• A significant portion of climate mitigation costs can be compensated for by reduced pollution control requirements (right-hand panel of Figure 2). Our scenarios indicate cost savings of up to US$500 billion per year by 2030, almost half the level of today's investments into the global energy system.
Key Finding: climate change mitigation can be an important entry point for achieving society's energy security goals• Decarbonization of the energy system can simultaneously reduce import dependence (improved sovereignty) and increase energy diversity (improved resilience), two key indicators of a more secure energy supply mix (left-hand pa...
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