Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

Grübler, Arnulf; O’Neill, Brian C.; Riahi, Keywan; Chirkov, V.; Goujon, Anne; Kolp, Peter; Prommer, I.; Scherbov, Sergei; Slentoe, E.

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.023

Cited by 157 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…For this purpose, the regional population and GDP scenarios of the A2r scenario (see Section 3.1) are disaggregated to the level of countries through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to the grid-cell level, which provides spatially explicit patterns of population and economic activities (Grubler et al 2007). The latter indicators are particularly important for the spatially explicit modeling of emissions and land-cover changes in the forestry and agriculture sectors.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

et al. 2011

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This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m 2 ). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policyinduced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

et al. 2011

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“…One of these accounts for partial convergence in per capita GDP within world regions based on the SRES storylines (van Vuuren et al 2007). Another distinguishes urban and rural areas in population and GDP projections and adds a geographic gravity model framework (see Section 4.2.2) to represent urban spatial expansion more effectively (Grübler et al 2007).…”

Section: Global Scenarios Of the Past Decade And Their Use And Shortcmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…& Climate projections were not available to match the socioeconomic scenario elements for the MA and GEO & Fast-track IAV studies using the SRES (Arnell et al 2004) reported a lack of sophisticated downscaling (including for narratives), although this issue was improved by later methods development (Grübler et al 2007;van Vuuren et al 2007) and the MA and GEO exercises. & The SRES (in particular) lacked detailed references to many of the key factors responsible for shaping vulnerability and adaptive capacity, including multi-dimensional, subnational aspects of development and non-quantifiable aspects of institutional change or governance.…”

Section: Global Scenarios Of the Past Decade And Their Use And Shortcmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although there is no shortage of conceptual approaches, no standardized methods exist to facilitate that translation, making the process somewhat ad hoc and subject to the needs of individual studies and normative assumptions. By building on the experience with the SRES scenarios (Grübler et al 2007;van Vuuren et al 2007), various statistical and model-based downscaling methods can be applied, assuming some a priori, coarse-scale quantitative metrics to generate regionalized quantitative scenarios for relevant assessment indicators (van Vuuren et al 2010). Although expedient, such approaches often develop scenarios for a limited suite of variables with little consideration of the broader socioeconomic context.…”

Section: Bottom-up and Top-down Approaches To Developing Scenarios Acmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indicators that capture sub-national inequalities are important to guide location-based assessments of vulnerability and impact differentials. Past efforts to assess impacts locally have often had to rely on downscaling methods (Grübler et al 2007;van Vuuren et al 2007).…”

Section: Income Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Levy²,

et al. 2013

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This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first Climatic Change (2014) 122:481-494 DOI 10.1007 This article is part of the Special Issue on "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research" edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos. provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

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Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: a review

Vuuren

Smith

Riahi

2010

WIREs Climate Change

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Global change research encompasses various scales from global to local. Impacts analysis in particular often requires spatial downscaling, whereby socioeconomic and emission variables specified at relatively large spatial scales are translated to values at a country or grid level. In this article, the methods used for spatial downscaling are reviewed, classified, and current applications discussed. It is shown that in recent years, improved methods for downscaling have been developed. 

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Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

Cited by 157 publications

References 21 publications

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: a review

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