The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

Fricko, Oliver; Havlík, Petr; Rogelj, Joeri; Klimont, Zbigniew; Gusti, M.; Johnson, Nils; Kolp, Peter; Strubegger, M.; Valin, Hugo; Amann, Markus; Ermolieva, T.; Forsell, Nicklas; Herrero, Mario; Heyes, C.; Kindermann, Georg; Krey, Volker; McCollum, David; Obersteiner, Michael; Pachauri, Shonali; Rao, Shilpa; Schmid, Erwin; Schoepp, W.; Riahi, Keywan

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004

Cited by 666 publications

(448 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…In order to show a representative cross section of the performance of the aneris harmonization procedure, we focus on the harmonization of results of the IAM MESSAGE-GLOBIOM [3]. Two scenarios from the SSP scenario library 220 [18,19] …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Results from IAMs are integral in a number of international studies, which notably include projections of climate and economic futures. Recently, the IAM community has developed scenarios based 15 on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) [2,3,4,5,6] which quantify a variety of potential global futures. The SSPs are designed to be used in research that include earth system model (ESM) simulations, climate impact, adaptation and climate mitigation studies [7].…”

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confidence: 99%

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A methodology and implementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in Integrated Assessment Models

Gidden

Fujimori

Berg

et al. 2018

Environmental Modelling & Software

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology and implementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in Integrated Assessment Models

Gidden

Fujimori

Berg

et al. 2018

Environmental Modelling & Software

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“…Currently, implementation of the REDD mechanism is seen as one of the important practices for reaching the 2°climate change mitigation target cost effectively. In particular, REDD can be implemented relatively fast that allows more time for development of mitigation technologies in other sectors (Houghton et al 2015;Fricko et al 2017). Inclusion of REDD credits in the global carbon market may decrease the mitigation costs substantially (Anger and Sathaye 2008;den Elzen et al 2009;Bosetti et al 2011;Angelsen et al 2014;Bosello et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The wood and agriculture land prices represent two economic alternatives of competitive land use, i.e., forestry for wood production or agriculture for food, industrial crops, and energy crops production. According to the analysis of IAM quantification of the SSPs by Fricko et al (Fricko et al 2017), the different scenarios may result in changes of the agriculture commodity prices from − 60 to + 50% by 2100 comparing to 2005. GHG mitigation activities, in addition, may result in an increase of the agriculture commodity prices by 110-570%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivity of the costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) to future socioeconomic drivers and its implications for mitigation policy design

Gusti

Forsell

Havlík

et al. 2018

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Climate change mitigation policies for the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector are commonly assessed based on marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) derived from optimization models or engineering approaches. Yet, little is known about the space of validity of MACCs and how they are influenced by changes in main underlying drivers. In this study, we apply the Global Forest Model (G4M) to explore the sensitivity of MACCs to variation of socioeconomic drivers of deforestation, afforestation, and forest management activities. Particularly, three key factors are considered: (I) wood price, as an indicator of timber market developments; (II) agricultural land price, as a proxy representing the developments on agricultural markets; and (III) corruption coefficient, representing the progress in institutional development and measuring abatement costs use efficiency. The results indicate that the MACCs are more sensitive to the corruption coefficient than to agricultural land price and wood price. Furthermore, we find that the MACCs are more robust with high carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) price and that the sensitivity of the MACCs is higher at low CO 2 prices. In general, it can be concluded that when assessing medium-term mitigation policies characterized by low CO 2 prices, MACCs need to be developed in-line with institutions currently in place. When designing long-term mitigation policy characterized by high CO 2 prices, the role of the analyzed drivers in MACCs estimation is less important.Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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“…The global competition for wood supply is increasingly intense, and it is expected to further intensify in the future, due to the need of meeting the growing demand for wood fiber (Fricko et al 2016). The different labor, harvesting and transportation systems' costs, coupled with the fluctuation of exchange rates, have led to different levels of supply costs in different countries over time (Siry et al 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benchmarking technical and cost factors in forest felling and processing operations in different global regions during the period 2013–2014

Fulvio

Abbas

Spinelli

et al. 2017

International Journal of Forest Engineering

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In a global bioeconomy, benchmarking costs is essential in the evaluation of current forest harvesting systems and addressing decisions on the most efficient supply chains for available forest resources. Benchmarking cost rates in forestry is challenging, due to a lack of harmonized terminology and difficulties in collecting information on comparable forest technologies. This study provides a firsttime series of cost factors to be used when modeling and evaluating the cost competitiveness of forest felling and processing operations on a global scale. It is based on an expert survey using a standardized method of data collection. This benchmarking identifies and updates the knowledge of technical and socio-economic factors capable of influencing the cost rates of forest felling and processing operations across different regions. This study is expected to act as a reference for larger investigations, and for regular updates, with the aim to provide current data that can be used by forest practitioners and decision makers for improving their cost efficiency and for designing future supply systems more effectively. ARTICLE HISTORY

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The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

Cited by 666 publications

References 38 publications

A methodology and implementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in Integrated Assessment Models

A methodology and implementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in Integrated Assessment Models

The sensitivity of the costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) to future socioeconomic drivers and its implications for mitigation policy design

Benchmarking technical and cost factors in forest felling and processing operations in different global regions during the period 2013–2014

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