Abstract. We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of
anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within
CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species
and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent
transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using
automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions
source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of
end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal
for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on
the low end by a 1.9 W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with
end-of-century temperatures well below 2 ∘C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m−2
scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ∘C over pre-industrial
levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences
between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature
outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6.
A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific
community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
Mitigation scenarios that achieve the ambitious targets included in the Paris Agreement typically rely on greenhouse gas emission reductions combined with net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, mostly accomplished through large-scale application of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and afforestation. However, CDR strategies face several difficulties such as reliance on underground CO 2 storage and competition for land with food production and biodiversity protection. The question arises whether alternative deep mitigation pathways exist. Here, using an integrated assessment model, we explore the impact of alternative pathways that include lifestyle change, additional reduction of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases and more rapid electrification of energy demand based on renewable energy. Although these alternatives also face specific difficulties, they are found to significantly reduce the need for CDR, but not fully eliminate it. The alternatives offer a means to diversify transition pathways to meet the Paris Agreement targets, while simultaneously benefiting other sustainability goals.
Abstract. We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated Assessment Model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emission source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios are bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m-2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 °C, and on the high-end by a 8.5 W m-2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 °C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
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