This article discusses the diversity of family policy models in 28 OECD countries in terms of the balance between their different objectives and the mix of instruments adopted to implement the policies. Cross-country policy differences are investigated by applying a principal component analysis to comprehensive country-level data from the OECD Family database covering variables such as parental leave conditions, childcare service provision, and financial support to families. The results find persistent differences in the family policy patterns embedded in different contexts of work-family "outcomes." Country classifications of family policy packages only partially corroborate categorizations in earlier studies, owing to considerable within-group heterogeneity and the presence of group outliers. The Nordic countries outdistance the others with comprehensive support to working parents with very young children. Anglo-Saxon countries provide much less support for working parents with very young children, and financial support is targeted on low-income and large families and focuses on preschool and early elementary education. Continental and Eastern European countries form a more heterogeneous group, while the support received by families in Southern Europe and in Asian countries is much lower in all its dimensions.

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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International audienceIn the light of the recent reversal of fertility trends in several highly developed countries, we investigate the impact of economic development and its components on fertility in OECD countries from 1960 to 2007. We find that the strong negative correlation between GDP per capita and fertility does no longer hold for high levels of per capita economic output; the relation instead seems to turn into positive from a certain threshold level of economic development on. Survival of an inverse J-shaped association between GDP per capita and fertility is found when controlling for birth postponement, omitted variable bias, non-stationarity and endogeneity. However, gaps between actual and predicted fertility rates show implicitly the importance of factors influencing fertility above and over per capita income. By decomposing GDP per capita into several components, we identify female employment as co-varying factor for the fertility rebound that can be observed in several highly developed countries. Pointing out to important differences with regard to the compatibility between childbearing and female employment, our results suggest that fertility increases are likely to be small if economic development is not accompanied by institutional changes that improve parents' opportunities to combine work and family life

This study explores the association between involuntarily working less or more than the standard workweek and poor mental well-being, and whether this relationship is dependent upon (changing) national-level unemployment and gross domestic product growth rates. Data from the European Social Survey Round 2 (2004-2005) and Round 5 (2010) were analyzed. The sample included 16,224 male and 16,184 female employees. Mental well-being was assessed by the World Health Organization Well-being Index. Three-level linear multilevel modeling was used to account for clustering of employees within research years and countries. Working involuntary long hours was positively associated with poor mental well-being for men. For women, working voluntary long, involuntary long, and involuntary short hours were positively associated with poor mental well-being. The mental well-being of women working voluntary and involuntary long hours was negatively influenced by deteriorating economic conditions. This study suggests women are more vulnerable to the effects of long working hours and working hours mismatch on mental well-being, especially during difficult economic periods.

Although the increase in female labour force participation is a fairly widespread trend, there is still a considerable diversity of situations across Europe from north to south. To identify the factors that may explain these differences, Olivier Thévenon uses data from the European Labour Force Surveys (EU-LFS) carried out in 14 countries between 1992 and 2005. For comparable educational levels and family situations (e.g. number of children, age of youngest child, single-parent status), the labour market behaviours of European women (inactive, short or long part-time work, full-time work) are very diverse. This diversity reflects differences in government policies targeting working mothers (help with reconciling work and childcare, encouragement to leave the labour market or to work part-time, etc.). In some contexts, women choose to postpone childbirth or to remain childless in order to pursue a working career. The increase in women's labour force participation may thus entail a certain polarization of behaviours.

Population trends in recent years have prompted most European countries to introduce or expand family support policies. In particular, the decline in fertility since the 1970s might be harmful in the long term. The number of children per family is often below the desired number declared in surveys. State support is intended to close the gap by lowering the barriers to having children. The increase in divorce, separation and blended families, and the numbers of children born outside marriage and living with 'lone' parents, have also prompted countries to increase support for families, particularly for struggling families, whose children are the most vulnerable to poverty. At the same time, governments have sought to encourage women's workforce participation by ensuring that these policies enable parents to strike a better balance between work and family. Consequently, the total investment of governments in benefits and services for families has strongly increased recently, reaching an average of 2.4% of GDP in 2003 in OECD countries, compared with 1.6% in 1980.