Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)

Abstract

International audienceIn the light of the recent reversal of fertility trends in several highly developed countries, we investigate the impact of economic development and its components on fertility in OECD countries from 1960 to 2007. We find that the strong negative correlation between GDP per capita and fertility does no longer hold for high levels of per capita economic output; the relation instead seems to turn into positive from a certain threshold level of economic development on. Survival of an inverse J-shaped association between GDP per capita and fertility is found when controlling for birth postponement, omitted variable bias, non-stationarity and endogeneity. However, gaps between actual and predicted fertility rates show implicitly the importance of factors influencing fertility above and over per capita income. By decomposing GDP per capita into several components, we identify female employment as co-varying factor for the fertility rebound that can be observed in several highly developed countries. Pointing out to important differences with regard to the compatibility between childbearing and female employment, our results suggest that fertility increases are likely to be small if economic development is not accompanied by institutional changes that improve parents' opportunities to combine work and family life

Earnings and first birth probability among Norwegian men and women 1995-2010

“…As the institutional support for families increase and/or the division of labour in the family becomes more gender equal, employment facilitates the transition to motherhood for women, and a positive correlation between female earnings and fertility emerges (Andersson, Kreyenfeld, and Mika 2014;Berninger 2013;Matysiak 2011). The fact that employment comes to facilitate the transition to motherhood is among the main explanations suggested for the shift to a positive correlation between human development and fertility found in macro-level analysis (Luci-Greulich and Thévenon 2014;Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari 2009). However, no previous study has used micro-level data to assess how the correlation between earnings and fertility responds to changes over time in gender relations and the institutions surrounding the family.…”

Prospects for Irish regions and counties: scenarios and implications

“…Importantly, there is not necessarily a negative relationship between economic development and fertility. Luci-Greulich and Thevenon (2014) show that accounting for a range of factors such as birth postponement, and omitted variable bias, fertility increases above a threshold level of development but that the level of increase is dependent on institutional changes that allow women to combine labour market participation and family life. This suggests that the availability of affordable childcare is an important factor in determining fertility, and this could be an important regional factor.…”

Post-transitional regional fertility in Romania

“…However, literature does not clearly support the postponement end effect on the relationship between economic development and fertility dynamics. In this respect, although Luci-Greulich and Thévenon (2014) conclude that birth postponement has a certain role in explaining such tendencies towards a reversal of fertility in the economic development process, other factors captured by GDP per capita contribute to fertility reincrease. In the same note, Fox, Klüsener, and Myrskylä (2015) point out that this causality hypothesis is not entirely supported, as the end of postponement and the economic outcome improvement can occur simultaneously.…”

“…Consequently, the education level increase and women's delayed transition to the labor market lead to a postponement of childbirth (tempo effect) while not necessarily affecting parents' demand for the total number of children (quantum effect). In other words, the total fertility rate registers a decline tendency due to the changes in the timing of births, which, however, begins to increase at the end of the postponement period (Rindfuss, Bumpass, and St. John 1980;Lesthaeghe 2001;Bongaarts 2002;Sobotka 2004;Luci-Greulich and Thévenon 2014).…”

“…Likewise, as pointed out by Luci-Greulich and Thévenon (2014), in the context of modern societies, a recovery in fertility cannot take place unless it is accompanied by institutional changes aimed at improving parents' opportunities to combine their professional and family life.…”