Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

How Education Drives Demography and Knowledge Informs Projections

“…Alternatively, one can restrict the sample to women who only started childbearing after age 18 or 22; within this sub-sample the association appears to be equally strong. Some of this empirical analysis is discussed in Basten et al (2013).…”

“…The global empirical evidence concerning the association between female education and fertility is comprehensively reviewed and discussed in Basten et al (2013) and Fuchs and Goujon (2013). Here it suffices to say that the assumptions used in our projections assume a gradual narrowing of educational fertility differentials with the progress in demographic transitions.…”

“…Changing patterns of partnerships and gender differences For each of these 17 major forces up to 10 specific arguments were listed, with responding experts invited to add additional self-defined arguments. These specific arguments are listed and discussed in Basten et al (2013), Fuchs and Goujon (2013), Caselli et al (2013), Garbero and Pamuk (2013), and Sander et al (2013) dealing with fertility, mortality, and migration. 2 For each of the arguments the experts were asked to judge the degree of correctness based on the scientific evidence.…”

What if fertility decline is not permanent? The need for an evolutionarily informed approach to understanding low fertility

“…Using evolutionary theory to explain the causes of very low fertility is likely to be controversial, particularly if accompanied by any hint of critique of other approaches. However, the study of fertility is also an area where evolutionary theory may be especially useful as, indeed, there currently is not a strong body of theory for explaining fertility decreases in humans, which in turn limits the ability to predict the future of fertility [4][5][6]. Indeed, experts in the field of population projection have called for inputs from multiple viewpoints and disciplines, including evolutionary anthropology, in order to help develop stronger theory and predictive ability [6].…”

“….'. Likewise, Basten et al [5] state that: 'Fertility forecasting has been dominated by the paradigm of the demographic transition. Fertility was thought to fall from a high comparatively stable level to a low comparatively stable level.…”