During the last 10 yr, research on seasonal climate forecasts as an agricultural risk management tool has pursued three directions: modeling potential impacts and responses, identifying opportunities and constraints, and analyzing risk communication aspects. Most of these approaches tend to frame seasonal climate forecasts as a discrete product with direct and linear effects. In contrast, the authors propose that agricultural management is a performative process, constituted by a combination of planning, experimentation, and improvisation and drawing on a mix of technical expertise, situated knowledge, cumulative experience, and intuitive skill as farmers navigate a myriad of risks in the pursuit of livelihood goals and economic opportunities. This study draws on ethnographic interviews conducted with 38 family farmers in southern Georgia, examining their livelihood goals and social values, strategies for managing risk, and interactions with weather and climate information, specifically their responses to seasonal climate forecasts. Findings highlight the social nature of information processing and risk management, indicating that both material conditions and value-based attitudes bear upon the ways farmers may integrate climate predictions into their agricultural management practices. These insights translate into specific recommendations that will enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of seasonal climate forecasts among farmers and will promote the incorporation of such information into a skillful performance in the face of climate uncertainty.

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Potential economic benefit exists from the use of seasonal climate forecasts in agriculture. To assess potential end user attitudes toward and interests in climate data, and to provide inputs from users to the development of decision support tools, we conducted a series of surveys. Survey results affected the design, development, and enhancement of AgClimate, a web-based decision support system for minimizing climate risks to agriculture. The overall process is an example of how decision makers can participate in the research process, thereby improving the value and relevance of research products such as decision support systems.

Evidence of increasing nitrogen levels in the Suwannee River Basin in North Florida demands a collaborative effort to find creative ways to reduce N pollution. This study explores the perspectives, perceptions, and attitudes of dairy farmers regarding adoption of climate forecasts as a potential way to mitigate the problem. These farmers are heavily scrutinized because of their nitrogen emissions. By contrasting scientists' pre-conceived attitudes about the usefulness of ENSObased forecasts with dairy farmers' perceptions, gathered in a participatory and consensual manner, valuable lessons were learned. A deeper understanding of the day to day realities of dairy farming systems help researchers pinpoint management adaptations that are not only useful, but feasible, in light of improved seasonal climate forecasts. Furthermore, dairy farmers' perceptions regarding the use of seasonal climate information to mitigate the nitrate problem are critical for designing future dairy systems.

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Soybean (Glycine max. L. Merrill) production in Paraguay has increased dramatically during the last decade and the country is now the fourth largest soybean exporter in the world, producing about 3% of the world's soybean production. This paper explored associations between soybean yield in eastern Paraguay and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Historical soybean yield data from official government sources were detrended to remove the effects of technological advances, and yield residuals were computed. In addition, differences in mean precipitation among ENSO phases were investigated under the context of crop development phases. The CSM-CROPGRO soybean model was used to simulate soybean development for two locations representing the most important soybean producing areas in Paraguay. Influences of ENSO phases on mean precipitation during planting and blooming, blooming and seed podding, and from young pods to physiological maturity were explored through tests of differences in the central tendency. Relative yield residuals during El Niño years were positive six out of seven events and varied from −9.4 to +24.2% for the 1991/1992 and 2002/2003 cropping seasons, respectively. During La Niña years, calculated residuals were negative for three out of four events and varied from −37.9 to +1.5% for the 2005/2006 and 1988/1989 cropping seasons, respectively. Analysis of precipitation records showed significantly lower precipitation levels between planting and blooming during La Niña years than during El Niño years. Differences in mean precipitation during blooming and beginning of seed formation were found to be not significant. Mean precipitation between seed podding and crop maturity was found to be significantly lower during La Niña years than during El Niño years in one of the locations studied.

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