Forecast Skill and Farmers’ Skills: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management in the Southeastern United States

Crane, Todd A.; Roncoli, Carla; Paz, Joel O.; Breuer, Norman; Broad, Kenneth; Ingram, K. T.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

doi:10.1175/2009wcas1006.1

Cited by 111 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…One theme emerging from these meetings was the need for actionable information, whereby climate products and forecasts are translated into agriculturally relevant impact-specific terms for producers and/or their advisors, for example, ''number of days suitable for field work.'' This outcome is consistent with a growing number of calls for more actionable climate information in other regions (Crane et al 2010;Dilling and Lemos 2011;Hammer et al 2001;Hansen and Coffey 2011;Kerr 2011;Klopper et al 2006). Another was the way that forecast uncertainty is conveyed to information users.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 75%

“…Like producers and forecasters, these users will provide needed input relating to products, information, and timing. Many studies have suggested that improved climate information and forecasts can reduce the risk of economic losses, increase profits, and improve short-and long-term farm management decisions (Crane et al 2010;Meinke and Stone 2005;Meza et al 2008). However, integration of climate information and forecasts into farm planning has been slow to occur for numerous reasons including a lack of forecast skill, usability of the information, and relevance of products to specific agricultural decisions (Garbrecht and Schneider 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Forecasts for Corn Producer Decision Making

et al. 2014

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Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertainty and increase profitability for corn producers. The purpose of this paper is to acquaint climate information developers, climate information users, and climate researchers with an overview of weather conditions throughout the year that affect corn production as well as forecast content and timing needed by producers. The authors provide a graphic depicting the climate-informed decision cycle, which they call the climate forecast-decision cycle calendar for corn.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Forecasts for Corn Producer Decision Making

et al. 2014

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“…A number of studies have examined how farmers in the developed world value and use weather and climate information as a tool to manage their agricultural operations or adapt to changing weather conditions (McCrea et al 2005;Hu et al 2006;Tarnoczi and Berkes 2010;Crane et al 2010;PytlikZillig et al 2010;Hogan et al 2010;Furman et al 2011). However, few studies have specifically explored the role of agricultural advisors in using weather/climate information to help farmers make decisions (but see Buizer et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience for Weather and Climate Information?

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Haigh

Mase

et al. 2013

Weather, Climate, and Society

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As the climate in the midwestern United States becomes increasingly variable because of global climate change, it is critical to provide tools to the agricultural community to ensure adaptability and profitability of agricultural cropping systems. When used by farmers and their advisors, agricultural decision support tools can reduce uncertainty and risks in the planning, operation, and management decisions of the farm enterprise. Agricultural advisors have historically played a key role in providing information and guidance in these decisions. However, little is known about what these advisors know or think about weather and climate information and their willingness to incorporate this type of information into their advice to farmers. In this exploratory study, a diverse set of professionals who advise corn growers, including government, nonprofit, for-profit, and agricultural extension personnel, were surveyed in four states in the midwestern Corn Belt. Results from the survey indicate that advisors are more influenced by current weather conditions and 1-7-day forecasts than longer-term climate outlooks. Advisors predominantly consider historical weather trends and/ or forecasts in their advice to farmers on short-term operational decisions versus longer-term tactical and strategic decisions. The main conclusion from this analysis is that opportunities exist to further engage the advisor community on weather and climate issues and, through them, the farmers who are managing the land. Keywords

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“…This situation which is typical for many farmer societies leads to conservative farming strategies, as farmers perceive their own insights to be the most rational strategy [10,45]. However, it is also a strategy which may sacrifice productivity in order to reduce the risk of loss [46].…”

Section: Agricultural Decision-making Situations and Rationality Of Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Is the Role of Agro-Met Information Services in Farmer Decision-Making? Uptake and Decision-Making Context among Farmers within Three Case Study Villages in Maharashtra, India

2017

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Scientific studies of climate and meteorology focusing on India show significant increase in the variability and frequency of extreme precipitation events. The increased variability of weather patterns places a huge constraint on farmer's ability to make strategic agricultural practice decisions. In response, public and private agro-met information services disseminate agro-met information to farmers. Yet, studies still show that there are constraints related to access and understanding of the information. An agro-met information service is based on scientific input from meteorology coupled with agricultural information and this information package is disseminated to farmers. Based on a study in three villages in Maharashtra, India, we show that the relevance of agro-met information differs depending on the decision-making situation. Several factors play an important role in farmer's agricultural decision-making. The usefulness of the agro-met information from farmer perspectives depends on the access, salience, and credibility of the information. Some subscribers complained about the credibility and the salience of services, while others painted a more positive picture of the service, arguing that there was value in receiving such information. The subscribers mainly valued agro-met information for the ability to undertake precautionary actions. We found that agricultural decision-making was discussed in different arenas; these arenas represented possibilities for farmers to contextualize agro-met information and thereby translate information to timely and appropriate actions suited to the specific local context.

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Forecast Skill and Farmers’ Skills: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management in the Southeastern United States

Cited by 111 publications

References 70 publications

Climate Forecasts for Corn Producer Decision Making

Climate Forecasts for Corn Producer Decision Making

Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience for Weather and Climate Information?

What Is the Role of Agro-Met Information Services in Farmer Decision-Making? Uptake and Decision-Making Context among Farmers within Three Case Study Villages in Maharashtra, India

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