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This paper analyzes the responses enacted by families of the Central Plateau in Burkina Faso during the year that followed a severe drought in 1997. We illustrate the agro-ecological and socio-economic contexts that shape livelihood options and constraints in an area characterized by high levels of climatic risk and low natural resource endowment. A description of farmers' perceptions and official accounts identifies key criteria whereby farmers formulate evaluations and predictions of a season. We document how food procurement and management practices are shaped by household resource access profiles and livelihood portfolios. Livelihood diversification, encompassing migration, non-farm work and social support networks, in addition to livestock production, is shown to be a critical dimension of adaptation. Livelihood and production adjustments entail costs and risks for most, but also gains for those who have the resources needed to take advantage of distress sales and high prices of agricultural commodities. Household livelihood and risk management increasingly hinge on efforts by household members who traditionally have had marginal access to resources, especially women. The research points to the need for closer integration of drought preparedness efforts, farmers' understanding of climate-crop interactions and interventions that bolster the capacity of resource-limited households to respond. Affordable grain, locally adapted seed varieties, labor saving technology and flexible credit are among the most needed inputs. http://www.fews.org/bf980262/sh980626.html#bf. In this paper we use the term 'drought' to translate the common French term sécheresse used by educated local people without entertaining the debate of its meteorological, hydrological or agronomic definitions. The Moré term waré refers to both a dry year and a dry period during the rainy season, including failure of expected rains event, such as planting rains

This study compares responses to seasonal climate forecasts conducted by farmers of three agro-ecological zones of Burkina Faso, including some who had attended local level workshops and others who had not attended the workshops. While local inequalities and social tensions contributed to excluding some groups, about two-thirds of non-participants interviewed received the forecast from the participants or through various means deployed by the project. Interviews revealed that almost all those who received the forecasts by some mechanism (workshop or other) shared them with others. The data show that participants were more likely to understand the probabilistic aspect of the forecasts and their limitations, to use the 434 Climatic Change (2009) 92:433-460 information in making management decisions and by a wider range of responses. These differences are shown to be statistically significant. Farmers evaluated the forecasts as accurate and useful in terms of both material and non-material considerations. These findings support the hypothesis that participatory workshops can play a positive role in the provision of effective climate services to African rural producers. However, this role must be assessed in the context of local dynamics of power, which shape information flows and response options. Participation must also be understood beyond single events (such as workshops) and be grounded in sustained interaction and commitments among stakeholders. The conclusion of this study point to lessons learned and critical insights on the role of participation in climate-based decision support systems for rural African communities.

Several drought indices are available to compute the degree of drought to which crops are exposed. Th ey vary in complexity, generality, and the adequacy with which they represent processes in the soil, plant, and atmosphere. Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID) was developed as a reference index to approximate the water stress factor that is used to aff ect growth and other physiological processes in crop simulation models. Using RMSE, Willmott d index, and modeling effi ciency (ME) as performance measures, ARID was evaluated using soil water contents in the root zone measured daily in two grass fi elds in Florida. Th e ability of ARID was assessed through comparison with the water defi cit index (WSPD) of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CERES-Maize model. Seven other drought indices were compared with WSPD to identify the most appropriate agricultural drought index. Values of each index were computed for full canopy cover periods of maize (Zea mays L.) crops for 16 locations in the U.S. Southeast. Using periodic values, the performance of each index was assessed in terms of its correlation (r) with and departure from WSPD. Th e ARID reasonably predicted soil water contents (RMSE = 0.01-0.019, d index = 0.92-0.94, ME = 0.66-0.73) and adequately approximated WSPD (r = 0.90, RMSE = 0.15). Among the indices compared, ARID mimicked WSPD the most closely (RMSE smaller by 1-83%, r larger by 1-630%) and captured weather fl uctuation eff ects the most accurately. Results indicated that ARID may be used as a simple index for quantifying drought and its eff ects on crop yields.

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During the last 10 yr, research on seasonal climate forecasts as an agricultural risk management tool has pursued three directions: modeling potential impacts and responses, identifying opportunities and constraints, and analyzing risk communication aspects. Most of these approaches tend to frame seasonal climate forecasts as a discrete product with direct and linear effects. In contrast, the authors propose that agricultural management is a performative process, constituted by a combination of planning, experimentation, and improvisation and drawing on a mix of technical expertise, situated knowledge, cumulative experience, and intuitive skill as farmers navigate a myriad of risks in the pursuit of livelihood goals and economic opportunities. This study draws on ethnographic interviews conducted with 38 family farmers in southern Georgia, examining their livelihood goals and social values, strategies for managing risk, and interactions with weather and climate information, specifically their responses to seasonal climate forecasts. Findings highlight the social nature of information processing and risk management, indicating that both material conditions and value-based attitudes bear upon the ways farmers may integrate climate predictions into their agricultural management practices. These insights translate into specific recommendations that will enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of seasonal climate forecasts among farmers and will promote the incorporation of such information into a skillful performance in the face of climate uncertainty.

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