The costs for solar photovoltaics, wind, and battery storage have dropped markedly since 2010, however, many recent studies and reports around the world have not adequately captured such dramatic decrease. Those costs are projected to decline further in the near future, bringing new prospects for the widespread penetration of renewables and extensive power-sector decarbonization that previous policy discussions did not fully consider. Here we show if cost trends for renewables continue, 62% of China's electricity could come from nonfossil sources by 2030 at a cost that is 11% lower than achieved through a business-as-usual approach. Further, China's power sector could cut half of its 2015 carbon emissions at a cost about 6% lower compared to business-as-usual conditions.

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Zero emission freight trucks are needed to both improve public health and reduce global greenhouse gas emissions but at the same time are generally believed to be uneconomical.However, recent dramatic declines in battery prices and improvement in their energy density have created opportunities for battery-electric trucking today that were seldom anticipated just a few years ago. At the current global average battery pack price of $135 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) (realizable when procured at scale), a Class 8 electric truck with 375-mile range and operated 300 miles per day when compared to a diesel truck offers about 13% lower total cost of ownership (TCO) per mile, about 3-year payback and net present savings of about US $200,000 over a 15-year lifetime. This is achieved with only a 3% reduction in payload capacity. Even this small penalty can be reversed cost-effectively through light-weighting, in any case, only matters for a small fraction of trucks which regularly utilize their maximum payload. Electric trucks appear poised to also meet the performance demands for a large share of regional and long-haul trucking today. The estimated average distance traveled between 30minute driver breaks is 150 miles and 190 miles for regional-haul and long-haul trucks respectively in the US. Thirty minutes of charging using 500 kW or mega-Watt scale fastchargers would add sufficient range without impairing operations and economics of freight movement. However, as with almost any clean technology, higher upfront capital costs of both vehicles and charging infrastructure are major barriers when electric trucking is in its infancy. Without strong policy support, coordinated investments in both vehicle manufacturing and fuel infrastructure will not be forthcoming on the scale needed to harness the true potential of battery electric trucks.

SummaryFalling AC prices, increasing incomes, increasing urbanization, and high cooling requirements due to hot climate are all driving increasing uptake of Room Air Conditioners (RACs) in the Indian market. Air conditioning already comprises 40-60% of summer peak load in large metropolitan Indian cities such as Delhi and is likely to contribute 150 GW to the peak demand in 2030. Standards and labeling policies have contributed to improving the efficiency of RACs in India by about 2.5% in the last 10 years (2.5% per year) while inflation adjusted RAC prices have continued to decline. In this paper, we assess the technical feasibility, cost-benefit, and required policy enhancements by further accelerating the efficiency improvement of RACs in India.We find that there are examples of significantly more accelerated improvements such as those in Japan and Korea where AC efficiency improved by more than 7% per year resulting in almost a doubling of energy efficiency in 7 to 10 years while inflation adjusted AC prices continued to decline. We find that the most efficient RAC sold on the Indian market is almost twice as efficient as the typical AC sold on the market and hence see no technology constraints in a similar acceleration of improvement of efficiency.If starting 2018, AC efficiency improves at a rate of 6% instead of 3%, 40-60 GW of peak load (equivalent to connected load of 5-6 billion LED bulbs), and over 75 TWh/yr (equivalent to 60 million consumers consuming 100 kWh/month) will be saved by 2030; total peak load reduction would be as high as 50 GW. The net present value (NPV) of the consumer benefit between 2018-2030 will range from Rs 18,000 Cr in the most conservative case (in which prices don't continue to decline and increase based estimates of today's cost of efficiency improvement) to 140,000 Cr in a more realistic case (in which prices are not affected by accelerated efficiency improvement as shown by historical experience). This benefit is achievable by ratcheting up the 1 star level for fixed and inverter ACs to the level of today's five star rating for inverter ACs by 2022. Bulk procurement (similar to the Domestic Efficient Lighting Program) and incentive programs can complement the accelerated ratcheting up of star levels. Similar programs can also be implemented for other types of ACs.4

We illustrate that when the benefits of recent dramatic declines in Lithium battery prices are fully realized, the total cost of ownership of urban (intra-city) electric buses is lower than that for diesel buses in India even without subsidies. Factoring in the air quality benefits, projected reductions in the cost of batteries and solar electricity, it becomes evident that transitioning to an all-electric bus fleet presents an enormous opportunity for India to reduce urban air pollution while improving the finances of urban bus transit agencies. Applying relevant lessons from the policy ecosystem that delivered substantial price reductions and large-scale rapid deployment of solar PV and LEDs could achieve similar outcomes for battery electric buses. Well-designed high volume auctions and clear long term ambitious targets could achieve rapid electrification with little net public subsidy in the long-run.

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