The meridional shifts of the Oyashio Extension (OE) and of the Kuroshio Extension (KE), as derived from high-resolution monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 1982-2008 and historical temperature profiles in 1979-2007, respectively, are shown based on lagged regression analysis to significantly influence the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The signals are independent from the ENSO teleconnections, which were removed by seasonally varying, asymmetric regression onto the first three principal components of the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The response to the meridional shifts of the OE front is equivalent barotropic and broadly resembles the North Pacific Oscillation/western Pacific pattern in a positive phase for a northward frontal displacement. The response may reach 35 m at 250 hPa for a typical OE shift, a strong sensitivity since the associated SST anomaly is 0.5 K. However, the amplitude, but not the pattern or statistical significance, strongly depends on the lag and an assumed 2-month atmospheric response time. The response is stronger during fall and winter and when the front is displaced southward. The response to the northward KE shifts primarily consists of a high centered in the northwestern North Pacific and hemispheric teleconnections. The response is also equivalent barotropic, except near Kamchatka, where it tilts slightly westward with height. The typical amplitude is half as large as that associated with OE shifts.
Seven ice mass balance instruments deployed near 83°N on different first‐year and second‐year ice floes, representing variable snow and ice conditions, documented the evolution of snow and ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard in January–March 2015. Frequent profiles of temperature and thermal diffusivity proxy were recorded to distinguish changes in snow depth and ice thickness with 2 cm vertical resolution. Four instruments documented flooding and snow‐ice formation. Flooding was clearly detectable in the simultaneous changes in thermal diffusivity proxy, increased temperature, and heat propagation through the underlying ice. Slush then progressively transformed into snow‐ice. Flooding resulted from two different processes: (i) after storm‐induced breakup of snow‐loaded floes and (ii) after loss of buoyancy due to basal ice melt. In the case of breakup, when the ice was cold and not permeable, rapid flooding, probably due to lateral intrusion of seawater, led to slush and snow‐ice layers at the ocean freezing temperature (−1.88°C). After the storm, the instruments documented basal sea‐ice melt over warm Atlantic waters and ocean‐to‐ice heat flux peaked at up to 400 W m−2. The warm ice was then permeable and flooding was more gradual probably involving vertical intrusion of brines and led to colder slush and snow‐ice (−3°C). The N‐ICE2015 campaign provided the first documentation of significant flooding and snow‐ice formation in the Arctic ice pack as the slush partially refroze. Snow‐ice formation may become a more frequently observed process in a thinner ice Arctic.
A large retreat of sea-ice in the ‘stormy’ Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean has become evident through a series of record minima for the winter maximum sea-ice extent since 2015. Results from the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition, a five-month-long (Jan-Jun) drifting ice station in first and second year pack-ice north of Svalbard, showcase how sea-ice in this region is frequently affected by passing winter storms. Here we synthesise the interdisciplinary N-ICE2015 dataset, including independent observations of the atmosphere, snow, sea-ice, ocean, and ecosystem. We build upon recent results and illustrate the different mechanisms through which winter storms impact the coupled Arctic sea-ice system. These short-lived and episodic synoptic-scale events transport pulses of heat and moisture into the Arctic, which temporarily reduce radiative cooling and henceforth ice growth. Cumulative snowfall from each sequential storm deepens the snow pack and insulates the sea-ice, further inhibiting ice growth throughout the remaining winter season. Strong winds fracture the ice cover, enhance ocean-ice-atmosphere heat fluxes, and make the ice more susceptible to lateral melt. In conclusion, the legacy of Arctic winter storms for sea-ice and the ice-associated ecosystem in the Atlantic Sector lasts far beyond their short lifespan.
An upward‐looking Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler deployed from July 2007 to September 2008 in the Yermak Pass, north of Svalbard, gathered velocity data from 570 m up to 90 m at a location covered by sea ice 10 months out of 12. Barotropic diurnal and semidiurnal tides are the dominant signals in the velocity (more than 70% of the velocity variance). In winter, baroclinic eddies at periods between 5 and 15 days and pulses of 1–2 month periodicity are observed in the Atlantic Water layer and are associated with a shoaling of the pycnocline. Mercator‐Ocean global operational model with daily and 1/12° spatial resolution is shown to have skills in representing low‐frequency velocity variations (>1 month) in the West Spitsbergen Current and in the Yermak Pass. Model outputs suggest that the Yermak Pass Branch has had a robust winter pattern over the last 10 years, carrying on average 31% of the Atlantic Water volume transport of the West Spitsbergen Current (36% in autumn/winter). However, those figures have to be considered with caution as the model neither simulates tides nor fully resolves eddies and ignores residual mean currents that could be significant.
A 20 year long volume transport time series of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current across the Drake Passage is estimated from the combination of information from in situ current meter data (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) and satellite altimetry data . A new method for transport estimates had to be designed. It accounts for the dependence of the vertical velocity structure on surface velocity and latitude. Yet unpublished velocity profile time series from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers are used to provide accurate vertical structure estimates in the upper 350 m. The mean cross-track surface geostrophic velocities are estimated using an iterative error/correction scheme to the mean velocities deduced from two recent mean dynamic topographies. The internal consistency and the robustness of the method are carefully assessed.Comparisons with independent data demonstrate the accuracy of the method. The full-depth volume transport has a mean of 141 Sv (standard error of the mean 2.
A lagged maximum covariance analysis (MCA) of monthly anomaly data from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis shows significant relations between the large-scale atmospheric circulation in two seasons and prior North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, independent from the teleconnections associated with the ENSO phenomenon. Regression analysis based on the SST anomaly centers of action confirms these findings. In late summer, a hemispheric atmospheric signal that is primarily equivalent barotropic, except over the western subtropical Pacific, is significantly correlated with an SST anomaly mode up to at least 5 months earlier. Although the relation is most significant in the upper troposphere, significant temperature anomalies are found in the lower troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic, Europe, and Asia. The SST anomaly is largest in the Kuroshio Extension region and along the subtropical frontal zone, resembling the main mode of North Pacific SST anomaly variability in late winter and spring, and it is itself driven by the atmosphere. The predictability of the atmospheric signal, as estimated from cross-validated correlation, is highest when SST leads by 4 months because the SST anomaly pattern is more dominant in the spring than in the summer. In late fall and early winter, a signal resembling the PacificNorth American (PNA) pattern is found to be correlated with a quadripolar SST anomaly during summer, up to 4 months earlier, with comparable statistical significance throughout the troposphere. The SST anomaly changes shape and propagates eastward, and by early winter it resembles the SST anomaly that is generated by the PNA pattern. It is argued that this results via heat flux forcing and meridional Ekman advection from an active coupling between the SST and the PNA pattern that takes place throughout the fall. Correspondingly, the predictability of the PNA-like signal is highest when SST leads by 2 months. In late summer, the maximum atmospheric perturbation at 250 mb reaches 35 m K Ϫ1 in the MCA and 20 m K Ϫ1 in the regressions. In early winter, the maximum atmospheric perturbation at 250 mb ranges between 70 m K Ϫ1 in the MCA and about 35 m K Ϫ1 in the regressions. This suggests that North Pacific SST anomalies have a substantial impact on the Northern Hemisphere climate. The back interaction of the atmospheric response onto the ocean is also discussed.
The atmospheric response to the Kuroshio Extension (KE) variability during 1979-2012 is investigated using a KE index derived from sea surface height measurements and an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model hindcast. When the index is positive, the KE is in the stable state, strengthened and shifted northward, with lower eddy kinetic energy, and the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region is anomalously warm. The reverse holds when the index is negative. Regression analysis shows that there is a coherent atmospheric response to the decadal KE fluctuations between October and January. The KOE warming generates an upward surface heat flux that leads to local ascending motions and a northeastward shift of the zones of maximum baroclinicity, eddy heat and moisture fluxes, and the storm track. The atmospheric response consists of an equivalent barotropic large-scale signal, with a downstream high and a low over the Arctic. The heating and transient eddy anomalies excite stationary Rossby waves that propagate the signal poleward and eastward. There is a warming typically exceeding 0.6 K at 900 hPa over eastern Asia and western United States, which reduces the snow cover by 4%-6%. One month later, in November-February, a high appears over northwestern Europe, and the hemispheric teleconnection bears some similarity with the Arctic Oscillation. Composite analysis shows that the atmospheric response primarily occurs during the stable state of the KE, while no evidence of a significant large-scale atmospheric response is found in the unstable state. Arguments are given to explain this strong asymmetry.
Twenty‐five years of high‐resolution (1/12°) ocean reanalysis are used to examine the Confluence of the Malvinas Current (MC) with the Brazil Current (BC) from synoptic to interannual time scales. The model transports of the MC (38.0 Sv ± 7.4 Sv 57 at 41°S) and the BC (23.0 Sv ± 11 Sv at 36°S) agree with observations. The model shows the branching of the MC near the Confluence with an offshore branch returning south and an inner branch sinking below the BC and managing to continue northward along the continental slope. Northward velocities associated with the subsurface inner branch peak at 40 cm/s at 36°S at 700‐m depth. The model documents the migrations of the Subantarctic (SAF) and Subtropical Fronts (STF) at the Confluence. The SAF and STF positions vary over a large range at synoptic (800 km) and interannual scale (300 and 200 km, respectively) compared to the rather small seasonal migrations of the STF (150 km) and SAF (50 km). While trends in the MC are small over the 25 years of the reanalysis, the BC becomes more intense (12.5 cm/s), saltier (0.37 psu), and warmer (2.5°C) in the upper 1,000 m. These trends are accompanied with a southward displacement of the STF and the SAF of 150 and 50 km.
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