Purpose. To determine the idea and efficiency of the WTO toolkit as a resource to prevent and regulate trade disputes arising in the process of interstate trade and economic cooperation.Methodology. Methods of analysis and synthesis, used to systemize data concerning inflow of notifications and applications, intended to regulate trade disputes within the WTO during 1995-2018, have become a methodological basis of the research. For malization of criteria of the WTO toolkit efficient use is implemented with the help of mathematical modeling method; and a method of static analysis is applied to support a rising linear trend in the context of the dynamics of annual number of the WTO notifications during 1995-2018.findings. The defining role by the WTO in the process of interstate trade and economic cooperation is substantiated. It is dem onstrated that minimization of the number of interstate disputes in the trade sphere as well as their intensity degree is the objective of the WTO toolkit use. The idea of notification system and mechanism to regulate trade disputes as the key components of the toolkit preventing them within the WTO is considered. An efficiency criterion of the WTO notification system as the increased number of the applied notifications is identified; its execution during 1995-2018 is confirmed. Both static and dynamic criteria of the efficiency of the mechanism, resolving trade disputes by the WTO, are proposed. Prevailing execution of the static criterion is supported which speaks for the efficiency of the mechanism to regulate disputes as the tool of the WTO global trade. Nonexecution of the dynamic criterion is demonstrated which may be interpreted as a lack of cumulative effect by the accumulated practices in tended to regulate trade disputes. Complex criterion of the WTO toolkit efficient use is proposed; its execution during 1995-2018 is analyzed. Priority tendencies to regulate interstate trade and economic cooperation on the part of the WTO are determined. originality. For the first time, methodological approach to evaluate efficiency of the WTO toolkit as a resource to regulate in terstate trade and economic cooperation has been proposed. The approach is based upon the following: substantiation of such ef ficiency criteria use for trade protection as a notification system and a mechanism to regulate trade disputes by the WTO; formation of a complex efficiency criterion to apply for regulation of trade disputes by the WTO; formulation of complex criterion of efficient use of the WTO tools; determination of quantative equivalents of the proposed criteria, and analysis of their execution during 1995-2018.Practical value. The proposed methodological approach may be applied to evaluate efficiency of the WTO toolkit concerning the global trade regulation as for the prevention and negotiation of interstate trade disputes.
The purpose of this article is to develop methodological approaches to assess the likelihood of multiplicative effects of hybrid threat combinations based on their systematization according to the key areas of hybrid confrontation. Methodology. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to identify the key areas of hybrid confrontation; methods of abstraction and generalization - to justify the multiplicative effects of implementing combinations of hybrid threats; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of effectiveness of various hybrid aggression tools. The research is based on scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services. Results of the study. It has been proved that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of acquiring by them signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, predominantly of non-military nature. It is argued that the urgent task in the context of counteracting hybrid threats is to assess the probability of multiplicative effects from the implementation of their combinations. The military, economic and information spheres have been identified as key dimensions of the hybrid confrontation. The specifics of hybrid threats in the economic sphere are those that would allow the country initiating the aggression to disguise its participation in the conflict, and the target country to obtain critical resources for the development of its economic system. The essence of synergy and cumulation effects is considered and their interpretation in the coordinates of hybrid warfare is given. The relevant effects are defined as multiplicative, that is, those that have a multiplier effect, providing accumulation (accumulation) and synergy (amplification) from the implementation of threats in different areas of hybrid confrontation. Practical implications. Assessing the likelihood of the multiplier effect of a variety of hybrid threats will focus on countering those combinations of threats that can have a significant impact on the political and economic system of the state of hybrid aggression. Value/originality. Justification and formalization of conditions for obtaining multiplicative (cumulative and synergistic) effects from the use of various hybrid confrontation tools.
У статті розглянуто неопротекціонізм як актуальну тенденцію формування міждержавних торговельних відносин в умовах глобалізації. Показано, що вжиття державами неопротекціоністських заходів у зовнішній торгівлі приводить до виникнення міждержавних торговельних конфліктів різного ступеня інтенсивності. Вказано на невиправданість ототожнення зовнішньоторговельних протиріч різного рівня напруги з торговельною війною. Проаналізовано суперечливу ситуацію у зовнішній торгівлі між Китаєм та США, визначено її характеристики з точки зору інтенсивності торговельних обмежень та економічних втрат для держав-учасниць. Обґрунтовано доцільність розгляду протистояння між Китаєм та США як торговельного конфлікту на тлі захисту національних економічних інтересів, який має перспективи врегулювання за умови симетричних обопільних дій його сторін. Ключові слова: неопротекціонізм, національні економічні інтереси, міждержавний торговельний конфлікт, торговельні обмеження, США, Китай, торговельна війна.
, начальник Управління митно-тарифного регулювання Департаменту адміністрування митних платежів Державної фіскальної служби України Львівська пл.,
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