Multiplicative Effects of Hybrid Threats*

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to develop methodological approaches to assess the likelihood of multiplicative effects of hybrid threat combinations based on their systematization according to the key areas of hybrid confrontation. Methodology. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to identify the key areas of hybrid confrontation; methods of abstraction and generalization - to justify the multiplicative effects of implementing combinations of hybrid threats; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of effectiveness of various hybrid aggression tools. The research is based on scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services. Results of the study. It has been proved that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of acquiring by them signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, predominantly of non-military nature. It is argued that the urgent task in the context of counteracting hybrid threats is to assess the probability of multiplicative effects from the implementation of their combinations. The military, economic and information spheres have been identified as key dimensions of the hybrid confrontation. The specifics of hybrid threats in the economic sphere are those that would allow the country initiating the aggression to disguise its participation in the conflict, and the target country to obtain critical resources for the development of its economic system. The essence of synergy and cumulation effects is considered and their interpretation in the coordinates of hybrid warfare is given. The relevant effects are defined as multiplicative, that is, those that have a multiplier effect, providing accumulation (accumulation) and synergy (amplification) from the implementation of threats in different areas of hybrid confrontation. Practical implications. Assessing the likelihood of the multiplier effect of a variety of hybrid threats will focus on countering those combinations of threats that can have a significant impact on the political and economic system of the state of hybrid aggression. Value/originality. Justification and formalization of conditions for obtaining multiplicative (cumulative and synergistic) effects from the use of various hybrid confrontation tools.

Information Security of the State Under Conditions of Hybrid Warfare: Mechanisms of Ensuring

“…In conditions of hybrid warfare, when the country has become the object of an attack and is exposed to a significant number of information threats, their elimination requires the adoption of certain organizational and legal measures. The strategic goal of ensuring information security as a national security component is determined by the country's national interests in the domestic political sphere, which include the preservation of the constitutional order, the maintenance of national harmony and the legal space's unity (Wan &Raju, 2022), (Mazaraki, Kalyuzhna & Sarkisian, 2021).…”

Integrated security strategies in the context of hybrid threats in the Slovak Republic

“…The study reflects on the need to conduct ongoing research but also on facts that were studied in the research of the authors collective (Mazaraki, Kalyuzhna and Sarkisian 2021) based on results showing that a transformation of modern interstate conflicts is taking place in the direction of their acquiring hybrid features. These hybrid signs and manifestations are understood to be a process that employs different means of coercion, predominantly nonmilitary.…”