In this study, it has been aimed to determine the effect of oil prices on basic macroeconomic indicators econometrically by using the monthly data of the Turkish economy of the 2007-2018 period. Johansen Cointegration method has been used to determine the long-term relationship, and FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR methods have been used to calculate the long-term coefficients. According to the empirical results, oil price mobility is cointegrated with the main macroeconomic indicators in the long run, and have a positive effect on the interest rate, inflation, industrial production index, real effective exchange rate and employment and a negative effect on the current account deficit.
Bu çalışmanın amacı, ekonomik büyümenin devamlılığı için beşeri sermayenin önemini ortaya koymaktır. Bu çerçevede 2010-2014 dönemine ait veriler Panel Veri Tekniği kullanılarak empirik olarak analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen genel sonuçlar, beşeri sermaye unsurlarında zaman içerisinde meydana gelen iyileşmelerin, ekonomik büyümenin ve devamlılığı üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuca ek olarak beşeri sermaye unsurlarının ekonomik büyümeyi açıklama gücünün yüksek gelir grubu ülkeler açısından ciddi boyutlarda olduğunu göstermektedir.
Since the 1980’s, the growth rates have been continuously fluctuating because of internal and external economic and politic developments. These fluctuating - low growth rates led to a discussion on the middle income trap which is an outcome of low growth rates in Turkey. According to the some indicators, there is a middle income trap in the Turkish economy and the competitiveness of the economy has been decreasing in the international area because of the trap. It is seen that especially technology and innovations are the prominents factors that the governments have to take into account. This study is on the middle income trap in Turkey. In this context, firstly, the definitions of income traps, income grups, and the middle income trap will be given. Second, the causes of the middle income trap and the exit strategies from the trap will be expressed. Third, some indicators of the economy will be examined and compared with the high middle income and the high income countries. Fourth, the rank of the Turkish economy in the global competitiveness indeks will be shown and compared with the other countries. Fifth, the relationship between the middle income trap and the balance of payments will be investigated in context of the Thirlwall Rule. Finally, in order to escape from the trap, some policy proposals of the authors will be asserted.
The objective of the study is to assess the asymmetric effect of electricity consumption on economic growth. In this context, the scope of the study in this regard includes information about the Turkish economy from 2005 to 2020. With the aid of quarterly data, two different approaches have been used in econometric analysis. In order to increase the predictive power of the analysis, the industrial production index has been used in the models as independent variable. In models where economic growth is the dependent variable, the asymmetric effect of electricity consumption is reflected by the NARDL model, and the causality relationship is reflected by the Toda-Yamamoto test. The NARDL model results show a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables of the empirical application, and the analysis's findings support this. Conversely, it has been seen that positive changes in electricity consumption boost growth, and negative changes in consumption diminish growth, both in the short and long terms. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test validates the outcome of the NARDL model by showing a causal relationship between growth and electricity consumption.
Turkish economy may have removed restrictions on capital movements and within this context it has integrated the international economy since the 1980s. The level of dependence on the outside of the country's economy has increased, macroeconomic indicators have deteriorated, economic crises have occurred, and a more fragile structure against external shocks has emerged. In this study, stability of hot money movements components which have a fragile structure from speculative capital movements' components in Turkey and the relationship with economic growth have tried to be presented econometrically with the help of the quarterly data for the period between 1998-2017. Longterm cointegrated relationship between the components of the hot money movements and economic growth, and one-way causality relationship from the related components to economic growth is obtained. Vector Error Correction model has shown that the long-term relationship between the components of hot money movements and economic growth provides a temporary stability.
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