The Effect of Oil Prices Mobility on Basic Macroeconomic Indicators

Abstract

In this study, it has been aimed to determine the effect of oil prices on basic macroeconomic indicators econometrically by using the monthly data of the Turkish economy of the 2007-2018 period. Johansen Cointegration method has been used to determine the long-term relationship, and FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR methods have been used to calculate the long-term coefficients. According to the empirical results, oil price mobility is cointegrated with the main macroeconomic indicators in the long run, and have a positive effect on the interest rate, inflation, industrial production index, real effective exchange rate and employment and a negative effect on the current account deficit.

Petrol Fiyatları ile Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Hisse Senedi Piyasasına Asimetrik Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği

“…The literature discusses oil prices as a central factor affecting world economies. Many have investigated the relationship between oil price shocks and several macroeconomic indicators, including industrial production and inflation (Hamilton, 1983;James & Kaul, 1996;Aykırı, 2020) and even other energy sources demand, such as electricity (Akarsu, 2017). Yet, studies examining the effects of oil price changes on financial markets are relatively new.…”