Elektrik Tüketiminin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkisi: NARDL ve Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemlerinden Kanıtlar

Abstract

The objective of the study is to assess the asymmetric effect of electricity consumption on economic growth. In this context, the scope of the study in this regard includes information about the Turkish economy from 2005 to 2020. With the aid of quarterly data, two different approaches have been used in econometric analysis. In order to increase the predictive power of the analysis, the industrial production index has been used in the models as independent variable. In models where economic growth is the dependent variable, the asymmetric effect of electricity consumption is reflected by the NARDL model, and the causality relationship is reflected by the Toda-Yamamoto test. The NARDL model results show a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables of the empirical application, and the analysis's findings support this. Conversely, it has been seen that positive changes in electricity consumption boost growth, and negative changes in consumption diminish growth, both in the short and long terms. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test validates the outcome of the NARDL model by showing a causal relationship between growth and electricity consumption.