Middle Income Trap and Balance of Payments Constraint in the Turkish Economy

Abstract

Since the 1980’s, the growth rates have been continuously fluctuating because of internal and external economic and politic developments. These fluctuating - low growth rates led to a discussion on the middle income trap which is an outcome of low growth rates in Turkey. 
 According to the some indicators, there is a middle income trap in the Turkish economy and the competitiveness of the economy has been decreasing in the international area because of the trap. It is seen that especially technology and innovations are the prominents factors that the governments have to take into account.
 This study is on the middle income trap in Turkey. In this context, firstly, the definitions of income traps, income grups, and the middle income trap will be given. Second, the causes of the middle income trap and the exit strategies from the trap will be expressed. Third, some indicators of the economy will be examined and compared with the high middle income and the high income countries. Fourth, the rank of the Turkish economy in the global competitiveness indeks will be shown and compared with the other countries. Fifth, the relationship between the middle income trap and the balance of payments will be investigated in context of the Thirlwall Rule. Finally, in order to escape from the trap, some policy proposals of the authors will be asserted.