The existence of floating net cages/KJA (Keramba Jaring Apung) in the Cirata reservoir is one of the suppliers that stock fisheries needs in West Java by 40%. But along with this, the number of KJA is increasing and its existence has exceeded the legimate amount determined by the Decree of the Governor of West Java No. 41 of 2002 as many as 85,393 plots. The increase in the number of KJA in the Cirata reservoir has an impact on the decline in water quality and fish productivity. This study aims to determine the processes that cause the dynamics of fish productivity and changes in water quality for KJA aquaculture, building models that can be used as a means of analysis to explain the dynamics that occur, designing a sustainable KJA policy. The depiction of the situation is carried out using the system dynamics approach. System dynamics methodology is one of the policy modeling approaches, especially in terms of increasing understanding of how and why dynamic symptoms of a system occurs This model shows actual behaviour and simulation behaviour, based on historical data 2007-2017. The actual model and simulation show that the model and structure of the model are valid according to The Theil Statistical Test, while the model reference has also reflected its historical behaviour. Thus the model can be used for policy analysis. To formulate a sustainable KJA (floating net cage farming) policy, the policy analysis used is in the period of 2007-2040. The model structure in this research is made based on the relationship between KJA farming dynamics, productivity, policy, KJA waste, eutrophication cycle, O2 availability and technology. These variables cause eutrophication in the Cirata Reservoir and affect the production and productivity of fish for the long term. Based on these differences, the hypotheses have been proposed which cover farming of KJA productivity and eutrophication of reservoir waters. First, the model is used to simulate the likelihood of the increasing presence of KJA and the deteriorating water productivity and quality in the next 20 years. Then, by analyzing the possible scenario, the policy scenario is designed to overcome the problems that occur.
Malaysian pepper industry is facing supply constraints which may affect its future. The system dynamics model provides a framework for understanding the dynamics and feedback structure of the Malaysian pepper supply and demand systems. The choice was made based on the ability of this model in capturing complexity and feedback relationship. The pepper model integrates key elements such as area, production, inventory, price, profitability and demand. The research question is: What are the likely future trends of pepper supply and demand under the different price conditions? The situation requires one to seek a methodology that could explain the complexity of the system and to establish an insight on the interrelation of the key variables. Simulation results indicate that the pepper area is expected to increase rapidly over the next decades, however production is expected to grow slowly because of the low productivity and price volatility.
The Dynamic model of the interaction between land use and transport in urban areas is developed in order to meet the needs of city managers in formulating the more comprehensive urban development plans. The specialty of the model lies in the method that was built through the integration between the methods of system dynamics with spatial dynamic. The utilization of this method is intended to address the challenges in developing a model that is able to describe the dynamics of relationship between land use and transportation in the perspective of urban system. Application of this model in the research area shows some unique phenomenon in the study area such as a tradeoff policy outcome and system resistance to the policy.
Defense industry plays a role in supporting and strengthening the national defense, especially in the infrastructure and technologies that include defense equipment. In addition to technology, the components that make up the national defense force is human resources (number of personnel, capabilities and combat strategies , moral struggle) and natural resources (land area , natural fortress, mineral wealth , raw materials and ingredients for food , energy materials) Overall national defense force was used to protect our national interests against potential threats from outside the country. Operationally, the use of the national defense force is regulated in national defense doctrine, which is further elaborated in the various government regulations. This study aims to determine the existing condition of the Indonesian defense industry system and analyze the model of Indonesia's defense that needs to be applied. This type of research methods research is a descriptive research (descriptive research). verification study (verificative research) and applied research (Applied Research). The unit of analysis in this study is the defense industry, businesses. The results showed that there are three main models of the defense industry autarky system models, niche production models as well as global supply chain models. Indonesian models wearing the realization of selfsufficiency efforts chain. In an attempt supply defense industry, defense industry system and the model of the technology supplied from existing civilian production.
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