This study was specifically embarked upon to establish empirically the relationship exiting among Exchange rate, Interest rate and economic growth in Nigerian economy over the period of 1970-2010. Fundamentally, the period of the study was fractured into two prominent distinctions of economic era-the regulation era and the deregulation era. The study adopted vector auto-regression (VAR) technique, with specific emphasis on Impulse Response factor and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition.
This study examined the validity of the J-Curve Phenomenon and Marshall-Lerner Condition in the Nigerian context using data from 1982-2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds test method of cointegration was employed for the analysis of short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade balance. The long-run result endorsed the validity of the Marshall-Lerner Condition in Nigeria. Thus, a depreciation of the Naira improves the trade balance in the long run. However, the results of the short-run dynamics revealed that there is no J-Curve phenomenon in Nigeria. The study recommends diversification of exports to improve the performance of Nigeria’s non-oil exports. In addition, fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies should be properly harmonized to tackle trade deficits. Furthermore, there should be more investment in Research and Development in Nigeria to improve the value of goods exported and the competitiveness of its exports in the arena of international trade.
Our objective in this study is to investigate if natural resource abundance can crowed-out the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. Under the framework of an ARDL and over a period of 1990-2019, findings of the results showed that in the short-run, natural resources positively impact on the manufacturing value added in the current period; however, after a one period lag, the contribution of natural resources to the manufacturing value added becomes negative. We also found that in the short-run, real interest rate, inflation rate and trade openness are negatively linked to the manufacturing value added, while employment in industry and gross fixed capital formation are positively related to the manufacturing value added. In the long-run, natural resources contributed positively to the manufacturing value added. The long-run results also show that the gross fixed capital formation and inflation rate negatively impact on the manufacturing valued added. The implication of our finding is that natural resources rent is closely linked to the success of the manufacturing sector and as such can also crowd-out the manufacturing sector. On grounds of these findings, we recommend, among others; that the proceeds from natural resources should be used to build critical infrastructure necessary to improve the performance of the manufacturing sector. This way, the economy can be diversified to create the needed employment.
This study explored the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth in Nigeria from 1984 to 2017. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds method to cointegration was employed for this study. The results revealed that foreign aid did not contribute to economic growth in Nigeria. Also, the macroeconomic policy environment did not contribute to economic growth in both the short-run and long-run. Furthermore, the results revealed that the impact of foreign aid on economic growth in Nigeria was contingent on the quality of the macroeconomic policy environment. Hence, the claim that the effectiveness of aid is dependent on the q policy environment was valid for Nigeria. The study, therefore, recommends that the policymakers of the government should put in place a sound macroeconomic policy environment that is stable to stimulate domestic saving and ensure the effective utilization of foreign aid. Besides, there is a need for the diversification of the economy through viable alternatives such as agriculture, industrialization and trade to lessen heavy reliance on foreign aid as a major means of stimulating economic growth. Furthermore, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Offences Commission, established to fight corruption should be effective in their job and convince development partners and other aid donors that it is no longer business as usual for those that divert public resources including foreign aid funds for personal gains and the government should provide incentives to private investors and good enabling environment for the thriving of private businesses.
This paper investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in Nigeria utilizing data from 2005Q1 to 2020Q4. The ARCH model and its extensions of GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH models and nominal effective exchange rate were employed to measure exchange rate volatility. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds test methodology was used to examine the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate volatility on exports. The findings validated the presence of exchange rate volatility. In addition, the results revealed that exchange rate volatility had a negative and insignificant impact on exports. The study, thus, recommends that the government of Nigeria through the Central Bank of Nigeria should foster stable regimes of exchange rate through the implementation of appropriate policies of the exchange rate. Also, an enabling environment for the production of exportable goods should be provided by the government.
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