Our objective in this study is to investigate if natural resource abundance can crowed-out the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. Under the framework of an ARDL and over a period of 1990-2019, findings of the results showed that in the short-run, natural resources positively impact on the manufacturing value added in the current period; however, after a one period lag, the contribution of natural resources to the manufacturing value added becomes negative. We also found that in the short-run, real interest rate, inflation rate and trade openness are negatively linked to the manufacturing value added, while employment in industry and gross fixed capital formation are positively related to the manufacturing value added. In the long-run, natural resources contributed positively to the manufacturing value added. The long-run results also show that the gross fixed capital formation and inflation rate negatively impact on the manufacturing valued added. The implication of our finding is that natural resources rent is closely linked to the success of the manufacturing sector and as such can also crowd-out the manufacturing sector. On grounds of these findings, we recommend, among others; that the proceeds from natural resources should be used to build critical infrastructure necessary to improve the performance of the manufacturing sector. This way, the economy can be diversified to create the needed employment.
The implications of capital inflows on the economy and the fall out of the policy geared towards addressing these phenomena, especially the impact of the policy on interest rate motivated us in this study. Under the framework of ARDL and using monthly series over a period of 2010M1-2021M3, our findings showed that in the short-run, sterilization policy leads to rising interest rate in the current period. However, after a lag, sterilization policy depresses interest rate. We equally found that in the long-run, sterilization policy pushes interest rate up. In another direction, we observed a negative relationship between money supply and interest rate both in the short-run and in the long-run and the exogenous variables in the model influence interest rate significantly. We therefore recommend that different measures should be adopted to cushion the effect of unsustainable capital inflows to avoid repeated need for further sterilization and the increasing cost of sterilization in the long-run. It is also our advice that exogenous variables should be factored in when fashioning out a desirable interest rate in line with economic reality.
Over the last decade, Nigeria has witnessed rising capital inflows that have kept the monetary authorities on their toes. This study, therefore, investigated the effectiveness of sterilization policy in controlling money supply and capital inflows in Nigeria. The need for this investigation arose from observed dearth of study in this area in Nigeria as well as the surge in capital inflows within the study period with its likely macroeconomic implications. The study would answer the question: (1) to what extent does sterilization effort of the Central Bank of Nigeria effective in controlling capital inflows in Nigeria, (2) to what extent is sterilization policy able to regulate money supply in Nigeria. By utilizing monthly data spanning a period of 2010-2018 under the framework of Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), findings show that the sterilization policy of the CBN is effective in regulating money supply and depressing capital inflows both in period of normal capital inflows and in period of intensive capital inflows. We therefore recommend that in periods of sudden and volatile capital inflows, sterilization measure should be given a priority in order to stave off the negative consequences of such unexpected inflows. We also recommend fiscal prudency on the part of the fiscal authorities, especially within the period of high and volatile capital inflows just as the observance of a synergy between fiscal and monetary policies is not ruled out.
This paper investigated the impact of oil price volatility on some monetary variables in Nigeria under the framework of the GARCH models. The paper utilized three alternative error distributions in order to assist in providing better model fits and thus avoid biased results. Using monthly series over a period of 2006-2019, our findings revealed that, apart from the usual normal error distribution other error distributions perform better in the modelling of the impact of oil price volatility on monetary variables in Nigeria. The findings of the study also revealed that the asymmetric parameters of the models show evidence of leverage effect and oil price volatility plays a significant role in the determination of volatility of monetary variables. We, therefore, recommend that in modelling volatility of oil price and monetary variables in Nigeria, different error distributions should be considered. Contribution/ Originality: In this study, we contribute to the literature by exploring various error distributions. This approach is pertinent because restricting the study to only normal distribution which is the usual practice could lead to biased outcomes as other error distributions can perform better. Our study can be affirmed to have evidence of originality; therefore the validity, reliability and uniqueness cannot be contested.
This paper aims to investigate the response of private and public sector credit to shocks in monetary policy instruments with a view to ascertaining if the responses differ. The study utilized the vector autoregressive (VAR) model with monthly data covering the period from 2010M1 to 2021M8. Findings show that credit to private sector responds positively to shocks in money supply and monetary policy rate (MPR) in all periods. However, the response to cash reserve requirement (CRR) was negative beginning from period five, and it also responded negatively to foreign interest rate shock. On the other hand, credit to government was found to respond positively to shocks in money supply up to period two and CRR in all the periods, but it responded negatively to MPR starting from period three. The results of the variance decomposition show that other than shocks to itself, which was 100% in the first period, shocks to other variables influence private sector credit. Also, other than shocks to itself, which was 99.89% in the first period, shocks to other variables lead to shocks to credit to government. We therefore recommend that policies used to influence financial intermediation should factor in the sensitivity of both public and private sectors to these policy instruments and the impact of exogenous shocks should be factored into policy formulation.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.