52% Yes, a signiicant crisis 3% No, there is no crisis 7% Don't know 38% Yes, a slight crisis 38% Yes, a slight crisis 1,576 RESEARCHERS SURVEYED M ore than 70% of researchers have tried and failed to reproduce another scientist's experiments, and more than half have failed to reproduce their own experiments. Those are some of the telling figures that emerged from Nature's survey of 1,576 researchers who took a brief online questionnaire on reproducibility in research. The data reveal sometimes-contradictory attitudes towards reproduc-ibility. Although 52% of those surveyed agree that there is a significant 'crisis' of reproducibility, less than 31% think that failure to reproduce published results means that the result is probably wrong, and most say that they still trust the published literature. Data on how much of the scientific literature is reproducible are rare and generally bleak. The best-known analyses, from psychology 1 and cancer biology 2 , found rates of around 40% and 10%, respectively. Our survey respondents were more optimistic: 73% said that they think that at least half of the papers in their field can be trusted, with physicists and chemists generally showing the most confidence. The results capture a confusing snapshot of attitudes around these issues, says Arturo Casadevall, a microbiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, Maryland. "At the current time there is no consensus on what reproducibility is or should be. " But just recognizing that is a step forward, he says. "The next step may be identifying what is the problem and to get a consensus. "

Chemical ozone destruction occurs over both polar regions in local winter-spring. In the Antarctic, essentially complete removal of lower-stratospheric ozone currently results in an ozone hole every year, whereas in the Arctic, ozone loss is highly variable and has until now been much more limited. Here we demonstrate that chemical ozone destruction over the Arctic in early 2011 was--for the first time in the observational record--comparable to that in the Antarctic ozone hole. Unusually long-lasting cold conditions in the Arctic lower stratosphere led to persistent enhancement in ozone-destroying forms of chlorine and to unprecedented ozone loss, which exceeded 80 per cent over 18-20 kilometres altitude. Our results show that Arctic ozone holes are possible even with temperatures much milder than those in the Antarctic. We cannot at present predict when such severe Arctic ozone depletion may be matched or exceeded.

Abstract. The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) version 4.10 (V4) level 2 aerosol data products, released in November 2016, include substantial improvements to the aerosol subtyping and lidar ratio selection algorithms. These improvements are described along with resulting changes in aerosol optical depth (AOD). The most fundamental change in the V4 level 2 aerosol products is a new algorithm to identify aerosol subtypes in the stratosphere. Four aerosol subtypes are introduced for stratospheric aerosols: polar stratospheric aerosol (PSA), volcanic ash, sulfate/other, and smoke. The tropospheric aerosol subtyping algorithm was also improved by adding the following enhancements: (1) all aerosol subtypes are now allowed over polar regions, whereas the version 3 (V3) algorithm allowed only clean continental and polluted continental aerosols; (2) a new “dusty marine” aerosol subtype is introduced, representing mixtures of dust and marine aerosols near the ocean surface; and (3) the “polluted continental” and “smoke” subtypes have been renamed “polluted continental/smoke” and “elevated smoke”, respectively. V4 also revises the lidar ratios for clean marine, dust, clean continental, and elevated smoke subtypes. As a consequence of the V4 updates, the mean 532 nm AOD retrieved by CALIOP has increased by 0.044 (0.036) or 52 % (40 %) for nighttime (daytime). Lidar ratio revisions are the most influential factor for AOD changes from V3 to V4, especially for cloud-free skies. Preliminary validation studies show that the AOD discrepancies between CALIOP and AERONET–MODIS (ocean) are reduced in V4 compared to V3.

Spaceborne lidar measurements from CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) are used to provide a vortex-wide perspective of the 2009–2010 Arctic PSC (polar stratospheric cloud) season to complement more focused measurements from the European Union RECONCILE (reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions) field campaign. The 2009–2010 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, and was one of only a few winters from the past fifty-two years with synoptic-scale regions of temperatures below the frost point. More PSCs were observed by CALIPSO during the 2009–2010 Arctic winter than in the previous three Arctic seasons combined. In particular, there were significantly more observations of high number density NAT (nitric acid trihydrate) mixtures (referred to as Mix 2-enh) and ice PSCs. We found that the 2009–2010 season could roughly be divided into four periods with distinctly different PSC optical characteristics. The early season (15–30 December 2009) was characterized by patchy, tenuous PSCs, primarily low number density liquid/NAT mixtures. No ice clouds were observed by CALIPSO during this early phase, suggesting that these early season NAT clouds were formed through a non-ice nucleation mechanism. The second phase of the season (31 December 2009–14 January 2010) was characterized by frequent mountain wave ice clouds that nucleated widespread NAT particles throughout the vortex, including Mix 2-enh. The third phase of the season (15–21 January 2010) was characterized by synoptic-scale temperatures below the frost point which led to a rare outbreak of widespread ice clouds. The fourth phase of the season (22–28 January) was characterized by a major stratospheric warming that distorted the vortex, displacing the cold pool from the vortex center. This final phase was dominated by STS (supercooled ternary solution) PSCs, although NAT particles may have been present in low number densities, but were masked by the more abundant STS droplets at colder temperatures. We also found distinct variations in the relative proportion of PSCs in each composition class with altitude over the course of the 2009–2010 Arctic season. Lower number density liquid/NAT mixtures were most frequently observed in the lower altitude regions of the clouds (below ~18–20 km), which is consistent with CALIPSO observations in the Antarctic. Higher number density liquid/NAT mixtures, especially Mix 2-enh, were most frequently observed at altitudes above 18–20 km, primarily downstream of wave ice clouds. This pattern is consistent with the conceptual model whereby low number density, large NAT particles are precipitated from higher number density NAT clouds (i.e. mother clouds) that are nucleated downstream of mountain wave ice clouds

Abstract. This paper focuses on polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) measurements by the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar system onboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) spacecraft, which has been operating since June 2006. We describe a second-generation PSC detection algorithm that utilizes both the CALIOP 532-nm scattering ratio (ratio of total-to-molecular backscatter coefficients) and 532-nm perpendicular backscatter coefficient measurements for cloud detection. The inclusion of the perpendicular backscatter measurements enhances the detection of tenuous PSC mixtures containing low number densities of solid (likely nitric acid trihydrate, NAT) particles and leads to about a 15% increase in PSC areal coverage compared with our original algorithm. Although these low number density NAT mixtures would have a minimal impact on chlorine activation due to their relatively small particle surface area, these particles may play a significant role in denitrification and therefore are an important component of our PSC detection. In addition, the new algorithm allows discrimination of PSCs by composition in terms of their ensemble backscatter and depolarization in a manner analogous to that used in previous ground-based and airborne lidar PSC studies. Based on theoretical optical calculations, we define four CALIPSO-based composition classes which we call supercooled ternary solution (STS), ice, and Mix1 and Mix2, denoting mixtures of STS with NAT particles in lower or higher number densities/volumes, respectively. We examCorrespondence to: M. C. Pitts (michael.c.pitts@nasa.gov) ine the evolution of PSCs for three Antarctic and two Arctic seasons and illustrate the unique attributes of the CALIPSO PSC database. These analyses show substantial interannual variability in PSC areal coverage and also the well-known contrast between the Antarctic and Arctic. The CALIPSO data also reveal seasonal and altitudinal variations in Antarctic PSC composition, which are related to changes in HNO 3 and H 2 O observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite.