The appropriate development of a model begins with understanding the problem that is being represented. The aim of this article was to provide a series of consensus-based best practices regarding the process of model conceptualization. For the purpose of this series of articles, we consider the development of models whose purpose is to inform medical decisions and health-related resource allocation questions. We specifically divide the conceptualization process into two distinct components: the conceptualization of the problem, which converts knowledge of the health care process or decision into a representation of the problem, followed by the conceptualization of the model itself, which matches the attributes and characteristics of a particular modeling type with the needs of the problem being represented. Recommendations are made regarding the structure of the modeling team, agreement on the statement of the problem, the structure, perspective, and target population of the model, and the interventions and outcomes represented. Best practices relating to the specific characteristics of model structure and which characteristics of the problem might be most easily represented in a specific modeling method are presented. Each section contains a number of recommendations that were iterated among the authors, as well as among the wider modeling taskforce, jointly set up by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making.
The appropriate development of a model begins with understanding the problem that is being represented. The aim of this article is to provide a series of consensus-based best practices regarding the process of model conceptualization. For the purpose of this series of papers, the authors consider the development of models whose purpose is to inform medical decisions and health-related resource allocation questions. They specifically divide the conceptualization process into two distinct components: the conceptualization of the problem, which converts knowledge of the health care process or decision into a representation of the problem, followed by the conceptualization of the model itself, which matches the attributes and characteristics of a particular modeling type to the needs of the problem being represented. Recommendations are made regarding the structure of the modeling team, agreement on the statement of the problem, the structure, perspective and target population of the model, and the interventions and outcomes represented. Best practices relating to the specific characteristics of model structure, and which characteristics of the problem might be most easily represented in a specific modeling method, are presented. Each section contains a number of recommendations that were iterated among the authors, as well as the wider modeling taskforce, jointly set up by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making.
Percutaneous endopyelotomy augmented by balloon dilation was performed on 27 of 40 patients for the treatment of symptomatic, primary ureteropelvic junction obstruction. Percutaneous ultrasonic lithotripsy was performed simultaneously on 12 of 27 patients (44%) for associated calculi. After endopyelotomy 24 of 27 patients became asymptomatic (clinical success rate 89%). Three clinically improved patients demonstrated only radiographic stability, while radiographic improvement was documented in 21 of 27 (radiographic success rate 78%). Adjuvant percutaneous ultrasonic lithotripsy was successful from the standpoint of stone removal in all patients and no increased morbidity could be identified. Of 27 patients 3 (11%) suffered major complications and are considered failures. Reasons for failure varied and are discussed. Included is a patient who at nephrostography and stent capping became septic and subsequently died. To decrease the risk of sepsis perioperative antibiotics to include at the time of nephrostomy tube capping are recommended. Angiography was performed in 19 of 40 patients to rule out an accessory crossing vessel at the ureteropelvic junction, and such a vessel was found in 6. From analysis of presenting excretory urograms (IVPs) we conclude that a crossing vessel cannot predictably be identified on an IVP.
Fearing war on the Korean peninsula as a result of the current nuclear crisis, China has attempted to restrain its risk-taking ally in North Korea and push it toward a negotiated solution. In the process, Beijing has reneged on security commitments made in its bilateral alliance with Pyongyang. We should not be surprised by this behavior because China has acted similarly in other alliances with Asian neighbors. In particular, the PRC has demonstrated a wariness of being dragged into unwanted conflicts, has (since the economic reforms began in 1978) placed its own strategic economic development interests over fulfilling security pledges to allies, and has taught unruly allies a lesson for defying Chinese interests and advice by allowing them to be bloodied in combat. China's refusal to honor its security commitments in order to restrain North Korea and avoid entrapment in an undesired war raises the issue of the future of this alliance.
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