Dealing by a Truculent Ally: A Comparative Perspective on China's Handling of North Korea

Abstract

Fearing war on the Korean peninsula as a result of the current nuclear crisis, China has attempted to restrain its risk-taking ally in North Korea and push it toward a negotiated solution. In the process, Beijing has reneged on security commitments made in its bilateral alliance with Pyongyang. We should not be surprised by this behavior because China has acted similarly in other alliances with Asian neighbors. In particular, the PRC has demonstrated a wariness of being dragged into unwanted conflicts, has (since the economic reforms began in 1978) placed its own strategic economic development interests over fulfilling security pledges to allies, and has taught unruly allies a lesson for defying Chinese interests and advice by allowing them to be bloodied in combat. China's refusal to honor its security commitments in order to restrain North Korea and avoid entrapment in an undesired war raises the issue of the future of this alliance.

China's Diplomatic Leverage on North Korean Provocations: Effect of High-Level Meetings Between China and North Korea on North Korean Missile and Nuclear Tests

“…Discussions between top leaders from both sides centered around Chinese companies' investments and contracts for joint projects in mining industries and infrastructure, such as ports, railroads, and highways in North Korea, as well as plans for special economic and trade zones in border areas (Lee 2009, 56-57). 1 Lee (2009) and Chambers (2005) have demonstrated a positive correlation between China's aid to North Korea and the frequency of meetings between leaders of both states, which in turn led to North Korea's moderated attitude toward its denuclearization. For example, following Wu Bangguo's visit to North Korea, North Korean leaders exhibited moderate attitudes toward nuclear negotiations, vowing to resolve the nuclear crisis through diplomatic meetings such as the Six-Party Talks while also refraining from further provocations (Chambers 2005, 54;Lee 2009, 52).…”

“…Multiple studies have noted that China believes that North Korea's economic reform is crucial for long-term regional stability and to promote its denuclearization and cessation of provocations (Chambers 2005, 57; Ji 2001, 389; Kim and Lee 2002, 130; Lee 2010, 169; Liu 2003, 370; Shambaugh 2003, 48; Wang 2014, 13). Chinese leaders attempted to persuade North Korea's leadership to adopt China's “Reform and Open” model by showcasing China's economically advanced regions.…”

“…This study aims to answer whether high-level meetings between China and North Korea effectively reduce North Korea's provocative actions, such as missile and nuclear tests. Prior literature has shown that China has utilized diplomatic meetings to dissuade North Korea from conducting missile or nuclear tests (Chambers 2005;Chon 2010;Kim 2011;Lee 2009Lee , 2014. However, these studies have not examined whether high-level talks between the leaders of the two states curb North Korea's provocative actions.…”

Disillusionment and Dismay: How Chinese Netizens Think and Feel About the Two Koreas

“…Much in Sino-North Korean relations today is well described in structural and material terms. Michael Chambers (2005) has noted that the relationship has taken on features of a typical alliance dilemma: the stronger alliance partner (China) fears entrapment, while the weaker partner (North Korea) China's interest in North Korean reforms is also well described in material terms. As Avery Goldstein (2006, 141) has recently noted, "Reforms in North Korea would advance China's reputational as well as its intrinsic [read: material] interests."…”

To condone, condemn, or ‘no comment’? Explaining a patron’s reaction to a client’s unilateral provocations

“…Although there has been growing scholarly interest in how China deals with North Korea's nuclear ambitions (e.g. Foot, 2001;Cha & Kang, 2003;Medeiros & Fravel, 2003;Chambers, 2005;Snyder, 2009;Haggard & Noland, 2010;Mastro, 2018), there has been no comprehensive analysis of China's handling of North Korea's provocations to date. Existing studies on the Sino-North Korean relationship rightly stress that China's concern for North Korea's regime collapse and US military posture could be important factors (e.g.…”