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The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and also examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting Aus, Aman and Boro rice production in Bangladesh. It appeared that the time series data for Aus and Aman were 1 st order homogenous stationary but Boro was 2 nd order stationary. The study revealed that the best models were ARIMA (4,1,4), ARIMA (2,1,1), and ARIMA (2,2,3) for Aus, Aman, and Boro rice production, respectively. The analysis indicated that short-term forecasts were more efficient for ARIMA models compared to the deterministic models. The production uncertainty of rice could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses. The findings of this study would be more useful for policy makers, researchers as well as producers in order to forecast future national rice production more accurately in the short run.

We carried out a prospective study in order to establish to what extent the intra-articular evaluation undertaken during arthroscopy of the knee differed between surgeons. Two senior specialist registrars and a consultant orthopaedic surgeon with a special interest in knee surgery were involved. A total of 78 knee arthroscopies (78 patients) was studied. Arthroscopy was first carried out by the trainee and then by the senior author (ACWH). The intra-articular evaluation during the arthroscopy was recorded independently by a third person in the operating theatre. Data were collected to record variations in examination under anaesthesia, the morphology and pathology of the menisci and anterior cruciate ligament and the state of the articular surfaces. The overall interobserver variation was 20% in all categories. We question the published results of intra-articular evaluation during knee arthroscopy when surgeons of different levels of experience are involved in a single study.

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On-farm participatory varietal selection (PVS) trials are often of two types: mother trials (with all of the entries) and baby trials (each having one, or very few of the entries from the mother trials). We conducted PVS trials on 17 wheat varieties in 12 villages of four districts of Bangladesh over three years but the data were highly unbalanced. Both quantitative and qualitative traits were measured in the on-farm trials. The factors in the trials were both fixed effects (varieties and districts) and random (years and farmers). We used the residual or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) analysis for the mixed model for quantitative traits. For qualitative data on farmers' perceptions, logistic regression procedures were used that are equally applicable to balanced and unbalanced data sets. The REML analysis provided adjusted mean values for quantitative traits for all the varieties, for the mother and baby trials separately, using the data from all years and all locations. It identified varieties BAW 1006 and BAW 1008 that yielded 19-30% more than the control Kanchan and also had a higher 1000-grain weight, were at least as early to flower and had a high overall ranking by farmers in the mother trials. The logistic regression analysis of perception data agreed with the results of the REML analysis as these varieties were most preferred by farmers for grain yield, earlier maturity and better chapatti making quality. The less labour-intensive method of recording qualitative perceptions can usefully replace actual yield measurements, particularly when validated by other participatory measures such as intended and actual adoption. In 2005, BAW 1006 was released as BARI Gom 23 or Bijoy and BAW 1008 as BARI Gom 24 or Prodip for the whole of Bangladesh. The validity of the results of the REML analysis was confirmed by the high early adoption trends of the identified varieties. Since REML is an effective analysis for unbalanced PVS trial data using a mixed model, its wider use by researchers would increase the value of the PVS process.

This study assesses the impact of Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) released modern wet (Aman) season rice variety adoption on farmers‟ well-being in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) data collected by IFPRI were used for this study. The study applied difference-in-difference treatment effect and difference-in-difference quantile treatment effect models using unbalanced panel data to achieve the set objectives. Analysis revealed that BRRI released wet (Aman) season rice technology has a robust and positive effect on small farmers‟ welfare in Bangladesh as indicated by the level of increases in per capita household real income, increases in real aman rice income, and also increases in yield and decreases both in poverty gap and squared poverty gap over time. The marginal and near landless farmers have not gained significantly through adopting BRRI released modern variety over non-adopters in terms of all the indicators except aman rice yield. However, only yield of BRRI released modern wet (Aman) season rice technology has positive and significant impact on the marginal and near landless farmers. As such, BRRI variety adoption seemed to be conducive in increasing the level of yield of marginal and near-landless farms but it hardly helps them to overcome the poverty level, unless other equity-enhancing policy measures are undertaken. Overall, there was large scope for enhancing adoption of BRRI released rice variety in order to reduce the poverty level in rural areas. The current rice policy (rice self-sufficiency) appears to be supportive to help Bangladesh rice sector for achieving food security in the country. Bangladesh Rice j. 2019, 23(1): 1-11

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was determined in clinic-based 1,517 hypertensive patients. All traits were present in 1.1% men and 12.8% women. Combination of different three traits were present as follows; hypertension with high triglyceride and low HDL (men 29.4% vs. women 51.8%), hypertension with high blood glucose and low HDL (men 13.5% vs. women 29.8%), hypertension with high glucose and high triglyceride (men 18.1% vs. women 18.1%), hypertension with high blood glucose and large waist (men 2.7% vs. women 25.7%), hypertension with high triglyceride and large waist (men 3.4% vs. women 39.3%) and hypertension with low HDL and large waist (men 2.5% vs. women 70.6%). This study shows that the metabolic syndrome is highly prevalent among hypertensive patients especially women.