Summary 1.Seeding is an important management tool in aridland restoration, but seeded species often fail to establish. Previous research has largely focused on the technical aspects of seeding with little effort directed at identifying demographic processes driving recruitment failures. 2. In tilled plots, in each of 3 years, we estimated life stage transition probabilities for three species commonly used in sage steppe restoration. We also took similar measurements on seed sown by managers following four major fires. 3. Point estimates and associated Bayesian confidence intervals demonstrated germination probabilities that were consistently high, averaging 0AE72. However, estimates suggest only 17 and 7% of the germinated seeds emerged in the tilled plots and fire sites, respectively. Following emergence, survival across the seedling, juvenile and adult transitions averaged 0AE72. This suggests the transition from a germinated seed to an emerged seedling was the major bottleneck in recruitment. Although most individuals died during emergence, this was not always the principal source of variation in recruitment across sites. 4. Synthesis and applications. Processes occurring after emergence, such as mortality during spring and summer drought, may contribute to site-to-site variation in recruitment but are unlikely to be the main causes of restoration failures. Instead, recruitment may largely be determined by processes occurring during emergence, such as freezing and thawing of the seedbed, development of physical soil crusts and pathogen attack on germinated seeds. Using tools such as seed coatings and soil amendments to manage processes inhibiting emergence and developing seed mixes with higher emergence probabilities are likely to greatly improve restoration outcomes in the sage steppe and similar aridland systems.

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Ecosystem managers face a difficult decision when managing invasive species. If they use aggressive practices to reduce invader abundances, they will likely reduce invaders' competitive impacts on natives. But it is often difficult or impossible to reduce invaders without damaging natives. So a critical question becomes: Which is worse for native biota, invaders or things done to control invaders? We attempted to answer this question for a common scenario. We studied several grassland natives exhibiting long-term coexistence with an invader and asked how aggressive management (herbicide use) affected the natives. Whether or not grazing was excluded, one-time herbicide use made two native forbs exceedingly rare for our entire 16-year study period. Herbicide also made several other native forbs rare, but only when grazing was excluded, and there is evidence that the dominant invader became more abundant in response to the decreases in native-forb abundances. Throughout the world, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are receiving herbicide applications for exotic-species control. Some of the applications are doubtless warranted because they target small invader patches or larger areas with virtually no remaining natives. However, other herbicide applications occur where large native populations occur, and our data suggest that these applications can be ill advised. Our cautionary tale is told using an herbicide-treated grassland, but our results should be considered wherever invasive-species management damages native species.

We assessed whether (1) arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization of roots (RC) and/or plant responses to arbuscular mycorrhizae (MR) vary with plant phylogeny and (2) MR and RC can be more accurately predicted with a phylogenetic predictor relative to a null model and models with plant trait and taxonomic predictors. In a previous study, MR and RC of 95 grassland species were measured. We constructed a phylogeny for these species and found it explained variation in MR and RC. Next, we used multiple regressions to identify the models that most accurately predicted plant MR. Models including either phylogenetic or phenotypic and taxonomic information similarly improved our ability to predict MR relative to a null model. Our study illustrates the complex evolutionary associations among species and constraints of using phylogenetic information, relative to plant traits, to predict how a plant species will interact with AMF.

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Theoretical and empirical work has established a positive relationship between resource availability and habitat invasibility. For nonnative invasive annual grasses, similar to other invasive species, invader success has been tied most often to increased nitrogen (N) availability. These observations have led to the logical assumption that managing soils for low N availability will facilitate restoration of invasive plant-dominated systems. Although invasive annual grasses pose a serious threat to a number of perennial-dominated ecosystems worldwide, there has been no quantitative synthesis evaluating the degree to which soil N management may facilitate restoration efforts. We used meta-analysis to evaluate the degree to which soil N management impacts growth and competitive ability of annual and perennial grass seedlings. We then link our analysis to current theories of plant ecological strategies and community assembly to improve our ability to understand how soil N management may be used to restore annual grass-dominated communities. Across studies, annual grasses maintained higher growth rates and greater biomass and tiller production than perennials under low and high N availability. We found no evidence that lowering N availability fundamentally alters competitive interactions between annual and perennial grass seedlings. Competitive effects of annual neighbors on perennial targets were similar under low and high N availability. Moreover, in most cases perennials grown under competition in high-N soils produced more biomass than perennials grown under competition in low-N soils. While these findings counter current restoration and soil N management assumptions, these results are consistent with current plant ecological strategy and community assembly theory. Based on our results and these theories we argue that, in restoration scenarios in which the native plant community is being reassembled from seed, soil N management will have no direct positive effect on native plant establishment unless invasive plant propagule pools and priority effects are controlled the first growing season.

Building trust in science and evidence-based decision-making depends heavily on the credibility of studies and their findings. Researchers employ many different study designs that vary in their risk of bias to evaluate the true effect of interventions or impacts. Here, we empirically quantify, on a large scale, the prevalence of different study designs and the magnitude of bias in their estimates. Randomised designs and controlled observational designs with pre-intervention sampling were used by just 23% of intervention studies in biodiversity conservation, and 36% of intervention studies in social science. We demonstrate, through pairwise within-study comparisons across 49 environmental datasets, that these types of designs usually give less biased estimates than simpler observational designs. We propose a model-based approach to combine study estimates that may suffer from different levels of study design bias, discuss the implications for evidence synthesis, and how to facilitate the use of more credible study designs.

Understanding if and how plant-soil biota feedbacks (PSFs) shape plant communities has become a major research priority. In this paper, we draw on a recent, high-profile PSF study to illustrate that certain widely used experimental methods cannot reliably determine if PSFs occur. One problem involves gathering soil samples adjacent to multiple conditioning plants, mixing the samples and then growing phytometers in the mixtures to test for PSFs. This mixed soil approach does not establish that the conditioning plant being present caused the soil biota to be present, the first step of a PSF. Also, soil mixing approximates replacing raw data with averages prior to analysis, a move certain to generate falsely precise statistical estimates. False precision also results from sample sizes being artificially inflated when phytometers are misinterpreted as experimental units. Plant biomass ratios become another source of false precision when individual plant values contribute to multiple ratio observations. Any one of these common missteps can cause still living null hypotheses to be pronounced dead, and risks of this increase with numbers of missteps. If soil organisms truly structure plant communities, then null hypotheses indicating otherwise will not survive proper testing. We discuss conceptual, experimental and analytical refinements to facilitate accurate testing.