Summary 1.Seeding is an important management tool in aridland restoration, but seeded species often fail to establish. Previous research has largely focused on the technical aspects of seeding with little effort directed at identifying demographic processes driving recruitment failures. 2. In tilled plots, in each of 3 years, we estimated life stage transition probabilities for three species commonly used in sage steppe restoration. We also took similar measurements on seed sown by managers following four major fires. 3. Point estimates and associated Bayesian confidence intervals demonstrated germination probabilities that were consistently high, averaging 0AE72. However, estimates suggest only 17 and 7% of the germinated seeds emerged in the tilled plots and fire sites, respectively. Following emergence, survival across the seedling, juvenile and adult transitions averaged 0AE72. This suggests the transition from a germinated seed to an emerged seedling was the major bottleneck in recruitment. Although most individuals died during emergence, this was not always the principal source of variation in recruitment across sites. 4. Synthesis and applications. Processes occurring after emergence, such as mortality during spring and summer drought, may contribute to site-to-site variation in recruitment but are unlikely to be the main causes of restoration failures. Instead, recruitment may largely be determined by processes occurring during emergence, such as freezing and thawing of the seedbed, development of physical soil crusts and pathogen attack on germinated seeds. Using tools such as seed coatings and soil amendments to manage processes inhibiting emergence and developing seed mixes with higher emergence probabilities are likely to greatly improve restoration outcomes in the sage steppe and similar aridland systems.

To understand how the abundance and impacts of invasive plants will respond to rapid environmental changes it is essential to link trait-based responses of invaders to changes in community and ecosystem properties. To do so requires a comprehensive effort that considers dynamic environmental controls and a targeted approach to understand key functional traits driving both invader abundance and impacts. If we are to predict future invasions, manage those at hand and use restoration technology to mitigate invasive species impacts, future research must focus on functional traits that promote invasiveness and invader impacts under changing conditions, and integrate major factors driving invasions from individual to ecosystem levels.

Agriculture and Natural Resources, Browns Valley, CA 95918, USA Summary 1. Seeding native plants is a key management practice to counter land degradation across the globe, yet the majority of seeding efforts fail, limiting our ability to accelerate ecosystem recovery. 2. Recruitment requires transitions through several seed and seedling stages, some of which may have overriding influences on restoration outcomes. We lack, however, a general framework to understand and predict differences in these critical demographic processes across species. Functional traits influence fitness, and consequently, trait variation could provide the basis for a framework to explain and predict variation in life stage transition probabilities. 3. We used seed and seedling traits, and field probabilities of germination, emergence, seedling establishment, and survival for 47 varieties of drylands grasses under two watering treatments to identify critical life stage transitions and quantify the effect of traits on cumulative survival through the first growing season. 4. Variation in germination and emergence probabilities explained over 90% of the variation in cumulative survival regardless of seedling survival probabilities or watering treatment, with emergence probability being the strongest predictor of cumulative survival. 5. Coleoptile tissue density and seed mass had significant effects on emergence and germination, respectively, explaining 10-23% of the variation in transition probabilities. 6. Synthesis and applications. While the majority of functional trait work has centred on linking leaf and root traits to resource acquisition and utilization, our study demonstrates that traits associated with germination and emergence may have prevailing influences on restoration outcomes. A portion of these traits have been examined, but there is substantial opportunity to identify other key traits driving these demographic processes. These advancements will underpin our ability to develop trait-based frameworks for overcoming recruitment barriers and facilitating recovery of degraded systems across the globe.