Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the UK, we show the significance of land use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space and wild species diversity. We use spatially explicit models in conjunction with valuation methods to estimate comparable economic values for these services, taking account of climate change impacts. We show that, while decisions which focus solely upon agriculture reduce overall ecosystem service values, highly significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning incorporating all potential services and their values, and that this approach also conserves wild species diversity.One Sentence Summary: Valuation of ecosystem services within land-use planning creates significant gains relative to current, market-dominated, decision making. Main Text:The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (1) provided important evidence of the ongoing global degradation of ecosystem services and highlighted the need to incorporate their value into the economic analyses which underpin real-world decision-making. Previous studies have shown that the overall values of unconverted natural habitats can exceed the private benefits following conversion (2, 3), that knowledge of landscape heterogeneity and ecological processes can support cost effective land planning (4-7), that trade-offs in land-use decisions affect values from ecosystem services and biodiversity at local level (8, 9), and that current land use is vulnerable to the impacts of global change (10, 11). In the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (NEA) (12), a comprehensive assessment of the UK's ecosystems was linked to a systematic, environmental and economic analysis of the benefits they generate. Here we show how taking account of multiple objectives in a changing environment (including, but not restricted to, climate change) fundamentally alters decisions regarding optimal land use. The NEA analyses are based upon highly detailed, spatially-referenced environmental data covering all of Great Britain. These data supported the design and parameterization of models of both the drivers and consequences of land use decisions, incorporating the complexity of the natural environment and its variation across space and time (13). Model outputs provide inputs to economic analyses which assess the value of both marketed and non-marketed goods (Table 1).The NEA specifically addressed the consequences of land use change driven by either just agricultural or a wider set of values, all within the context of ongoing climate change. To assess this, raw data on land use and its determinants were drawn from multiple sources to compile a 40 year dataset, spatially disaggregated at a resolution of 2km grid squares (400ha) or finer across all of Great Britain, forming more than ½ million sets of spatially referenced, time specific...

Reconciling the aims of feeding an ever more demanding human population and conserving biodiversity is a difficult challenge. Here, we explore potential solutions by assessing whether land sparing (farming for high yield, potentially enabling the protection of non-farmland habitat), land sharing (lower yielding farming with more biodiversity within farmland) or a mixed strategy would result in better bird conservation outcomes for a specified level of agricultural production. We surveyed forest and farmland study areas in southern Uganda, measuring the population density of 256 bird species and agricultural yield: food energy and gross income. Parametric non-linear functions relating density to yield were fitted. Species were identified as “winners” (total population size always at least as great with agriculture present as without it) or “losers” (total population sometimes or always reduced with agriculture present) for a range of targets for total agricultural production. For each target we determined whether each species would be predicted to have a higher total population with land sparing, land sharing or with any intermediate level of sparing at an intermediate yield. We found that most species were expected to have their highest total populations with land sparing, particularly loser species and species with small global range sizes. Hence, more species would benefit from high-yield farming if used as part of a strategy to reduce forest loss than from low-yield farming and land sharing, as has been found in Ghana and India in a previous study. We caution against advocacy for high-yield farming alone as a means to deliver land sparing if it is done without strong protection for natural habitats, other ecosystem services and social welfare. Instead, we suggest that conservationists explore how conservation and agricultural policies can be better integrated to deliver land sparing by, for example, combining land-use planning and agronomic support for small farmers.

The Whinchat Saxicola rubetra is an Afro‐Palaearctic migrant undergoing widespread population decline. Whinchats winter in West Africa but there are almost no data on their habitat use and behaviour there that may help to explain the cause of this decline. We measured the density of Whinchats, the habitat characteristics associated with their occurrence on farmland, and the relationships between behavioural and habitat variation on farmland around Jos, central Nigeria, over three winters. Whinchats occurred in many fields harvested in the dry season, the density at three sites varying from 0.03 to 0.43 birds/ha, but they were absent at a fourth site. Whinchats were less likely to be found in farmland without particular crops (e.g. structural stem crops such as maize and millet), with more trees, lower amounts of short vegetation (grass, weeds, crops and crop stubble less than 10 cm in height), and higher amounts of medium vegetation (coverage of vegetation 10–100 cm in height) and litter (dead, unburned, vegetation on the ground). Whinchat abundance in areas of farmland where they were present was independent of most variables considered, but density was higher where there was more short vegetation cover. Foraging behaviour did not vary significantly between farmland habitats. All predictors were consistent between season, years and across sites. The presence/absence model was very poor at predicting presence and there were no strong predictors of abundance or foraging variation. This is consistent with a species well below carrying capacity within its environment so that many suitable areas do not have birds present and there is little aggregation at better sites. Overall, Whinchats were abundant and appeared to have plentiful habitat; densities have probably increased alongside the intensification of agriculture (presence of fallow farmland, short vegetation and structural crops). The results suggest that West African farmland in the dry season can support large numbers of Whinchats and that recent population declines in Europe are unlikely to be caused primarily by lack of suitable wintering habitat.

Abstract:We combine natural science modelling and valuation techniques to present economic analyses of a variety of land use change scenarios generated for the UK National Ecosystem Assessment. Specifically, the agricultural, greenhouse gas, recreational and urban greenspace impacts of envisioned land use change are valued. Particular attention is given to the incorporation of spatial variation in the natural environment and to addressing issues such as biodiversity impacts where reliable values are not available. Results show that the incorporation of ecosystem services and their values within analyses can substantially change decisions.

The Sahel in West Africa is a major wintering area for many western Palearctic migrants. The breeding populations of many of these have declined over the past 50 years. However, there have been few intensive field studies on migrant ecology in the Sahel and these were generally within a very restricted area. Consequently our knowledge of the distribution of species within this extensive area and the habitat associations of these species is limited. Understanding these habitat associations is essential for the effective conservation management of populations. We brought together a group of experts and consulted a wider group by email to assess the main Sahelian habitat types used by 68 African-Eurasian migrant bird species. Those species that showed strongest declines during 1970-1990 were associated with more open habitats than those newly declining during 1990-2000, when declining species were associated with habitats with more shrubs and trees. Populations of species that winter in the Sahel are generally stable or increasing now as rainfall has increased and is now near the long-term average for the Sahel. Those which use the Sahel only as a staging area are, in many cases, in rapid decline at present.