A key assumption underlying any management practice implemented to aid wildlife conservation is that it will have similar effects on target species across the range it is applied. However, this basic assumption is rarely tested. We show that predictors [nearly all associated with agri-environment scheme (AES) options known to affect European birds] had similar effects for 11 bird species on sites with differing farming practice (pastoral vs. mixed farming) or which differed in the density at which the species was found. However, predictors from sites in one geographical region tended to have different effects in other areas suggesting that AES options targeted at a regional scale are more likely to yield beneficial results for farmland birds than options applied uniformly in national schemes. Our study has broad implications for designing conservation strategies at an appropriate scale, which we discuss.
Summary Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide‐tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change. A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted. Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2‐day workshop. Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring. We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs. We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity. Synthesis and applications. Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research.
Reconciling the aims of feeding an ever more demanding human population and conserving biodiversity is a difficult challenge. Here, we explore potential solutions by assessing whether land sparing (farming for high yield, potentially enabling the protection of non-farmland habitat), land sharing (lower yielding farming with more biodiversity within farmland) or a mixed strategy would result in better bird conservation outcomes for a specified level of agricultural production. We surveyed forest and farmland study areas in southern Uganda, measuring the population density of 256 bird species and agricultural yield: food energy and gross income. Parametric non-linear functions relating density to yield were fitted. Species were identified as “winners” (total population size always at least as great with agriculture present as without it) or “losers” (total population sometimes or always reduced with agriculture present) for a range of targets for total agricultural production. For each target we determined whether each species would be predicted to have a higher total population with land sparing, land sharing or with any intermediate level of sparing at an intermediate yield. We found that most species were expected to have their highest total populations with land sparing, particularly loser species and species with small global range sizes. Hence, more species would benefit from high-yield farming if used as part of a strategy to reduce forest loss than from low-yield farming and land sharing, as has been found in Ghana and India in a previous study. We caution against advocacy for high-yield farming alone as a means to deliver land sparing if it is done without strong protection for natural habitats, other ecosystem services and social welfare. Instead, we suggest that conservationists explore how conservation and agricultural policies can be better integrated to deliver land sparing by, for example, combining land-use planning and agronomic support for small farmers.
Provision of bird food in gardens is a common activity that may provide an alternative food source to birds in winter. Long-term survey data recording the weekly presence of all bird species using garden feeders in the winter were analysed to see if there was any evidence of trends in feeder use between 1970 and 2000 and whether these trends were correlated with breeding bird population trends. Of 41 species analysed, 21 showed significant increases in occurrence at garden feeders between 1970 and 2000. Many of these increases were evident only in the last 10 years. Several species showed significant positive correlations between trends in winter garden use and trends in relative population size in the previous breeding season. This was especially the case for species with population change (either increase or decrease) of the greatest magnitude. There was no evidence that seasonal shifts in garden feeder use were associated with population change in any species. Temperature was an important predictor of garden use but could not explain the year-to-year trends. However, as the number of feeding stations had increased over time the response of birds to the greater food availability in gardens may have been responsible for the widespread increases in occurrence of several species.
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