Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the UK, we show the significance of land use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space and wild species diversity. We use spatially explicit models in conjunction with valuation methods to estimate comparable economic values for these services, taking account of climate change impacts. We show that, while decisions which focus solely upon agriculture reduce overall ecosystem service values, highly significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning incorporating all potential services and their values, and that this approach also conserves wild species diversity.One Sentence Summary: Valuation of ecosystem services within land-use planning creates significant gains relative to current, market-dominated, decision making. Main Text:The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (1) provided important evidence of the ongoing global degradation of ecosystem services and highlighted the need to incorporate their value into the economic analyses which underpin real-world decision-making. Previous studies have shown that the overall values of unconverted natural habitats can exceed the private benefits following conversion (2, 3), that knowledge of landscape heterogeneity and ecological processes can support cost effective land planning (4-7), that trade-offs in land-use decisions affect values from ecosystem services and biodiversity at local level (8, 9), and that current land use is vulnerable to the impacts of global change (10, 11). In the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (NEA) (12), a comprehensive assessment of the UK's ecosystems was linked to a systematic, environmental and economic analysis of the benefits they generate. Here we show how taking account of multiple objectives in a changing environment (including, but not restricted to, climate change) fundamentally alters decisions regarding optimal land use. The NEA analyses are based upon highly detailed, spatially-referenced environmental data covering all of Great Britain. These data supported the design and parameterization of models of both the drivers and consequences of land use decisions, incorporating the complexity of the natural environment and its variation across space and time (13). Model outputs provide inputs to economic analyses which assess the value of both marketed and non-marketed goods (Table 1).The NEA specifically addressed the consequences of land use change driven by either just agricultural or a wider set of values, all within the context of ongoing climate change. To assess this, raw data on land use and its determinants were drawn from multiple sources to compile a 40 year dataset, spatially disaggregated at a resolution of 2km grid squares (400ha) or finer across all of Great Britain, forming more than ½ million sets of spatially referenced, time specific...

We present a novel methodology for spatial-and ecosystem-sensitive estimation of recreational visit numbers and their values across Great Britain. Drawing upon an extensive and spatially explicit survey of current recreational behaviour, data are combined with highly detailed information on population characteristics, transport infrastructure and GIS generated measures of the availability of potential substitutes and complements. Analysis yields a readily transferable model of visit behaviour which is valued using a meta-analysis of the recreation valuation literature. The impacts of changes envisaged under the various UK National Ecosystem Assessment scenarios for future land use are then analysed and corresponding visits and (real) values estimated. A second analysis demonstrates the application of the methodology to assessment of a proposed single site. We conclude by considering limitations and future potential for this methodology.

Encouraging adaptation is an essential aspect of the policy response to climate change1. Adaptation seeks to reduce the harmful consequences and harness any beneficial opportunities arising from the changing climate. However, given that human activities are the main cause of environmental transformations worldwide2, it follows that adaptation itself also has the potential to generate further pressures, creating new threats for both local and global ecosystems. From this perspective, policies designed to encourage adaptation may conflict with regulation aimed at preserving or enhancing environmental quality. This aspect of adaptation has received relatively little consideration in either policy design or academic debate. To highlight this issue, we analyse the trade-offs between two fundamental ecosystem services that will be impacted by climate change: provisioning services derived from agriculture and regulating services in the form of freshwater quality. Results indicate that climate adaptation in the farming sector will generate fundamental changes in river water quality. In some areas, policies that encourage adaptation are expected to be in conflict with existing regulations aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. These findings illustrate the importance of anticipating the wider impacts of human adaptation to climate change when designing environmental policies