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Water and forests are inextricably linked. Pressures on forests from population growth and climate change are increasing risks to forests and their aquatic ecosystem services (AES). There is a need to incorporate AES in forest management but there is considerable uncertainty about how to do so. Approaches that manage forest ecosystem services such as fiber, water and carbon sequestration independently ignore the inherent complexities of ecosystem services and their responses to management actions, with the potential for unintended consequences that are difficult to predict. The ISO 31000 Risk Management Standard is a standardized framework to assess risks to forest AES and to prioritize management strategies to manage risks within tolerable ranges. The framework consists of five steps: establishing the management context, identifying, analyzing, evaluating and treating the risks. Challenges to implementing the framework include the need for novel models and indicators to assess forest change and resilience, quantification of linkages between forest practice and AES, and the need for an integrated systems approach to assess cumulative effects and stressors on forest ecosystems and AES. In the face of recent international agreements to protect forests, there are emerging opportunities for international leadership to address these challenges in order to protect both forests and AES.

ABSTRACT. Cumulative effects management requires understanding the environmental impacts of development and finding the right balance between social, economic, and environmental objectives. We explored the use of choice experiments to elicit preferences for competing social, economic, and ecological outcomes in order to rank land and resource development options. The experiments were applied in the Southeast Yukon, a remote and resource rich region in Northern Canada with a relatively large aboriginal population. The case study addresses two issues of concern in cumulative effects management: the willingness to discount future environmental costs for immediate development benefits, and the existence of limits of acceptable change for communities affected by development. These issues are thought to be particularly relevant for First Nations in Northern Canada where cultural identify is tied to the land and continuity of the community is an important value. We found that residents of the Southeast Yukon value benefits from both development and conservation and must make trade-offs between these competing objectives in evaluating land use scenarios. Based on the preference information we evaluated four land use scenarios. Conservation scenarios ranked higher than development scenarios, however, there was significant heterogeneity around preferences for conservation outcomes suggesting a low degree of consensus around this result. We also found that residents did not discount the future highlighting the importance of intergenerational equity in resource development decisions. We did not find evidence of development thresholds or limits of acceptable change. Interestingly we found no difference in preferences between the aboriginal and non-aboriginal populations.

The boreal zone, a vast region with abundant natural resources and related industries, has both provisioning and nonprovisioning ecosystem services that draw some people, while warding off others. It is an area that arguably affects many Canadians in different ways and represents a wide range of tangible and intangible values. Changes in demographic patterns over time shed light on the development of the social-ecological landscape of the boreal zone, and elucidate potential changes in the future. Using past and current demographic data, we explore population size, immigration and emigration, and birth and death rates within and outside the boreal zone. We also explore links between demographics, social values, and important factors of change in the boreal zone, and present three contrasting scenarios predicting the state of this zone in 2050. We pay particular attention to the Indigenous population, generational differences, international immigration, and the urban–rural divide. Fertility rates and immigration influence population demographics within and outside the boreal zone, respectively, alluding to potential divergences in social values and between communities located within and outside the boreal zone. The boreal zone is currently comprised of many smaller towns and communities scattered across the landscape, yet it is equally important to consider the influences of larger cities located outside the boreal zone, particularly in terms of governance, population movements, and political power. Considered together, these factors provide insight on social cohesion and connectedness, demand for goods and services, and changes in boreal-centric activities.

The Canadian boreal forest is primarily public land, owned and managed by provincial governments on behalf of the public interest. Boreal forest governance consists of a complex patchwork of federal and provincial legislation, policies, tenures, and delegated authorities designed to achieve multiple (and often conflicting) social, ecological, and economic objectives. We examine the implications of boreal governance arrangements for sustainable management of ecosystem services. The paper shows how current multi-level governance arrangements that evolved from Canada’s Constitution Act are not effective at managing the cross-scale and cross-sectoral challenges of ecosystem services and have created a crisis of legitimacy for forest decisions. We show how the rise of nonstate arrangements, marketization, and decentralization are partly a response to governance gaps for ecosystem services as well as a reflection of global trends in forest governance. Past trends related to governance themes (the role and scope of government, the level of integration and coordination, Indigenous empowerment, and geopolitical influences) are used to motivate future governance scenarios.