Natural potato late blight epidemics were studied to assess the relative impact of various inoculum sources of Phytophthora infestans in Southern Flevoland (the Netherlands) from 1994 through 1996. Disease surveys were combined with characterization of isolates for mating type and DNA fingerprint pattern using probe RG57. Seventy-four percent of the commercial potato fields with early foci were clearly associated with nearby infested refuse piles. Characterization of isolates from refuse piles and fields confirmed the association. Infected seed tubers, volunteer plants, and infested allotment gardens appeared to be of minor importance for late blight development in potato fields. Several foci in refuse piles, potato fields, and allotment gardens contained more than one genotype. Due to favorable weather in August 1994, infested organic potato fields became major inoculum sources, resulting in the spread of P. infestans to adjacent conventional potato fields. Analyses of disease gradients, both at the field and regional levels, confirmed the role of the organic fields as mid-season infection sources. The mean slope of field gradients downwind of refuse piles (point sources) was significantly steeper (100-fold difference) than the mean slope of field gradients downwind of organic fields (area sources). The genotypic composition of the P. infestans populations along the gradient and of the source populations in the organic potato crops did not differ significantly. Analysis of the region gradient revealed genotype-specific disease gradients. Control measures are recommended.

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A sequence of 47 potato late-blight ( Phytophthora infestans ) epidemics in the Netherlands, from 1950 to 1996, was analysed using agronomic and meteorological variables. The intensity of annual epidemics was characterized by an index of disease intensity (DI, 0 = absence of late blight; 4 = severe epidemic). Three periods were identified, with average DIs of 2·9, 0 and 2, respectively. Period I (1950 -68) had relatively regular epidemics; period II (1969-78) was virtually blight free; and period III (1979-96) showed large variations in disease intensity. Disease-enhancing factors were number of days with precipitation, and number of hours with temperatures between 10 and 27 ° C and relative humidity >90% during the growing season. Limiting factors were number of hours with temperatures >27 ° C, and amount of global radiation. Linear discriminant analysis of DI using the blight status of the previous year and meteorological variables correctly classified up to 40 years out of 47 (87·0%), with five out of the six incorrectly classified years falling in period III. Blight status of the previous year and number of days with precipitation were important discriminating variables.

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