Study objective -To assist a purchasing district in the planning of services for low back pain by assessing the prevalence of symptoms and the current involvement of primary, secondary, and complementary care in the treatment of low back pain. In the light ofthese findings, to assess further the potential impact of a new system of open access to physical therapy, as recommended by the British Clinical Standards Advisory Group (CSAG).Design -A two-stage cross sectional survey approach using postal questionnaires. Subjects -Altogether 1437 men and 1747 women aged 25-64 years, randomly selected from the family health services association register in Bradford. Main results -An annual incidence of4 7% for low back pain was found, with lifetime, 12 month period, and point prevalences of 59%, 39%, and 19% respectively. Over a one year period, 50 3% of episodes were acute (<2 weeks), 21% were subacute (2 weeks-3 months), and 26% were chronic (over 3 months) in duration. Altogether 17*8% of the population in this age range experienced referred pain, numbness, or tingling, and 6-4% took time off work as a result of low back pain. In the same year, 20% of the population in the same age range consulted no-one about their pain, 13-7% were treated at the primary care level, 4% received secondary care, and 3% visited a complementary therapist. One fifth of those who did not consult a professional experienced severe pain during episodes. Prevalence estimates indicate that an emphasis on early intervention and primary care management of simple low back pain as recommended by the CSAG could generate a 131% surge in demand for physical therapy. Conclusions -Local prevalence estimates may allow purchasers to estimate the potential effects of a shift in management policy for low back pain and to highlight areas of unmet need in terms of resources and patient education. (J Epidemiol Community Health 1996;50:347-352) Low back pain (LBP) continues to present a major challenge to industrialised societies. Its associated disability is a problem which some suggest has reached epidemic proportions,' and its effects on industry and health services are increasingly felt. During the past decade, the number of days of certified incapacity due to back pain has tripled to an estimated 106 million,2 and the number of patients referred to hospital has increased fivefold.3 At a total social cost to Britain of nearly 6 billion in 1993, the price of LBP continues to rise by an estimated £500 million each year.3 A recent British report issued by the Clinical Standards Advisory Group (CSAG) has recommended purchaser specific contracts for LBP, with an emphasis on primary care management of the problem. In particular, it recommends that general practitioners have open access to physical therapy.3 However, previous studies have demonstrated that regional differences exist in rates of general practice consultation for LBP.4 If purchasers are to plan effectively and improve standards of care for those with LBP, local baseline estimates ofneed an...