Nonnative fish introductions disrupt ecosystem processes and can drive native species to local extinction. Two of the most widespread, introduced species are the common carp (Cyprinus carpio) from Eurasia and the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) from Africa. In North and South America, these introductions stem from aquaculture facilities, as well as historical introductions for recreational angling. An emergent field of ecological niche modeling provides robust predictions of the geographic potential of alien species to better understand their capacity to become established at broad scales. We used this modeling approach to produce spatially explicit predictions of the invasive potential of common carp and Nile tilapia in the Americas. Model predictions were tested using occurrence data for established populations in their native area and in the Americas. Results indicated that predictive power of niche models was high. Distributional potential of common carp in the Americas covers most temperate regions and high mountain tropical aquatic systems, whereas that of Nile tilapia is focused in the tropics and coast areas. The consequences of the potential establishment of these exotic species can be profound on native aquatic faunas, particularly on highly diverse regions such as the Amazon Basin and central Mexico.

Introduction of the benthivorous common carp (Cyprinus carpio) has been identified as one of the main causes of loss of biodiversity and water clarity in numerous shallow lakes and ponds worldwide. Recent observations in experimental fish ponds suggest that the effect of carp on the ecosystem is catastrophic in the sense that a substantial impact occurs only when a critical carp density is exceeded. In search for an explanation, we analyzed a simple model of the interaction between benthivorous fish and their invertebrate benthic prey, and of sediment resuspension resulting from fish feeding behavior. Our results suggest that benthic prey populations should be only moderately depressed until predator fish abundance grows to a critical biomass at which benthos collapses due to overexploitation. This drop in prey density is predicted to result in a sharp increase in water turbidity due to an increase in prey search activity of the fish. For less eutrophic and deeper lakes, where benthos productivity and hence benthivorous fish carrying capacity are lower, water turbidity is predicted to be much less affected. The qualitative patterns are quite robust against assumptions on parameter values and correspond closely to the experimental results and data from lakes suggesting that the model may capture the essence of the mechanism causing a discontinuous effect of benthivorous fish on lake ecosystems.

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Ecological-niche modeling is an important tool for conservation assessment of terrestrial species; however, its applicability has been poorly explored in the aquatic realm. Goodeines are a monophyletic group of viviparous freshwater fishes that are well known in central Mexico, with 41 species in 19 genera. Given the number of threats to biodiversity in the region, goodeines represent an excellent model with which to test novel conservation approaches. We assessed the conservation status of the goodeines (37 species), based on their potential distributions predicted by ecological-niche models generated with the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP). Predictions of species' distributions performed well in six out of eight species for which sufficient information was available to perform estimations of the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic plots. Extensive field surveys conducted in recent years in most cases confirm the models' predictions. Species richness exhibited a nested pattern, in which the number of species increased toward the center of the distribution of the group. At the basin level, the Río Ameca Basin had the highest number of species (11), chiefly because of the high number of microendemic species (6). Human activities within water bodies (e.g., extensive aquaculture) and drainages (e.g., agriculture, ranching, industrial activities) have affected most goodeines severely, given the deleterious effects of pollution and introductions of exotic species, such as carp (Cyprinus carpio, Ctenopharingodon idella) and tilapia (Oreochromis spp.). Our results paint a pessimistic picture for the long-term survival of many goodeines in their natural environment, and realistic conservation measures are complex and would require immediate protection of specific areas that we have identified. Ecological-niche modeling is a suitable tool for conservation assessment of freshwater species, but availability of environmental information on aquatic systems (e.g., temperature, water speed, pH, oxygen concentration) would improve distributional predictions.

The resuspension of sediment by waves or currents is a major cause of turbidity in many shallow waters. Here we show that bottom-feeding fish greatly facilitate this process by reducing the erosion resistance of the sediment. We use a fish-removal experiment from a large Dutch lake to show that the absence of fish makes sediment resistant to wind effects, and we use controlled lab experiments to demonstrate that the effect of fish can be explained by the characteristic hole-punching behavior used in the search for food. Undisturbed sediment in the laboratory consolidated rapidly. The critical water velocity needed for resuspension roughly doubled in 2 weeks. However, the acquired erosion resistance could be virtually eliminated by holes corresponding to only 2% of the sediment area. An analysis of a model based on our experimental results suggested that benthivorous fish may prevent sediment consolidation that, in the absence of fish, would sufficiently stabilize the sediment during a quiet period to resist wave resuspension during subsequent windy periods. Our results imply that, even in exposed shallow lakes that are turbid because of wind resuspension, a temporary reduction of fish stock may work as ''shock therapy'' to restore an alternative stable clear-water state.

Mexico, a rich country in terms of amphibian diversity, hosts about 375 described species. Population declines have been documented for several species where it is evident that their habitat is being destroyed or modified. However, other species which inhabit pristine areas are declining as well. It has been suggested that the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (B.d.) may be one of the causes of the enigmatic declines in Mexico. We surveyed a total of 45 localities, in 12 states across Mexico, examining a total of 360 specimens representing 14 genera and 30 species. We also examined 91 specimens of Ambystoma mexicanum from a captive population in Mexico City as well as one Pachymedusa dacnicolor obtained in a pet shop. We used a two-tiered technique to detect the pathogen. For wild-caught specimens, we utilized light microscopy to identify presence of B.d. sporangia in amphibian skin. Then, to verify the infection, we used a quantitative real-time PCR assay on collected skin sections which is specific for B.d. For captive animals, we used a nonlethal version of the real-time PCR technique. We found evidence of B.d. infection in 111 animals comprising 14 species in 13 localities. A large percentage (84%) of Ambystoma mexicanum from the colony were infected with B.d. The two most highly infected individuals were the endangered Ambystoma mexicanum, from a captive colony, and Pachymedusa dacnicolor, purchased at a pet shop.

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Matrix models and population viability analysis (PVA) have become useful tools to understand population attributes and dynamics. Demography analysis gives valuable information for the management of threatened species, and can be used to create action plans for their conservation. PVA is particularly useful in those species with small population sizes difficult to sample. By calculating the individual fate of each member of the population, PVA simulates temporal population changes and estimates extinction risk over a time period. Here we use these models to analyse the population of axolotl Ambystoma mexicanum, which has decreased more than six times within only 5 years. Its natural environment (the Xochimilco aquatic system within Mexico City) has deteriorated significantly in the last decades. The matrix analysis showed large oscillations in the axolotl population growth rate (damping behaviour), which could explain the fast density reduction in only few generations. Younger ages (eggs and larvae) showed the highest sensitivity and elasticity values, suggesting that the lack of food sources such as zooplankton or the increased predation by exotic carp and tilapia are capable to reduce axolotl density. PVA shows low extinction probabilities using laboratory data for younger ages. However, a small reduction in egg or larvae survival rate is capable to increase extinction probabilities to 100% in 20 years. Based on these results, we found that the best strategy to restore the axolotl population is to increase the survival rate of eggs and larvae by restoring the habitat, eradicating introduced fish and improving water quality, rather than implementing a reintroduction programme.