This chapter considers a concept of niche that emphasizes multidimensional spaces of scenopoetic variables and provides a natural connection to the study of geographic distributions of species. It first explains the relations between environmental and geographic spaces before discussing the use of equations to link spatially explicit population growth patterns to variation in the ecological characteristics of species. It then describes the BAM diagram, a Venn diagram that displays the joint fulfillment in geographic space of three sets of conditions that together determine species distribution: biotic conditions, abiotic conditions, and movement of the species. The chapter also explores the spatial resolution of scenopoetic variables, estimation of the fundamental and existing fundamental niches, the biotically reduced niche, and caveats about reducing Grinnellian niches and the Eltonian Noise Hypothesis. Finally, it shows how distributional areas and ecological niches can be estimated.

International audienceAim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. Location The Western Cape of South Africa. Methods We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential distributions under current and predicted future climate for four species (including two subspecies) of Proteaceae. Each model was built using an identical set of five input variables and distribution data for 3996 sampled sites. We compare model predictions by testing agreement between observed and simulated distributions for the present day (using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and kappa statistics) and by assessing consistency in predictions of range size changes under future climate (using cluster analysis). Results Our analyses show significant differences between predictions from different models, with predicted changes in range size by 2030 differing in both magnitude and direction (e.g. from 92% loss to 322% gain). We explain differences with reference to two characteristics of the modelling techniques: data input requirements (presence/absence vs. presence-only approaches) and assumptions made by each algorithm when extrapolating beyond the range of data used to build the model. The effects of these factors should be carefully considered when using this modelling approach to predict species ranges. Main Conclusions We highlight an important source of uncertainty in assessments of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and emphasize that model predictions should be interpreted in policy-guiding applications along with a full appreciation of uncertainty

This book provides a first synthetic view of an emerging area of ecology and biogeography, linking individual- and population-level processes to geographic distributions and biodiversity patterns. Problems in evolutionary ecology, macroecology, and biogeography are illuminated by this integrative view. The book focuses on correlative approaches known as ecological niche modeling, species distribution modeling, or habitat suitability modeling, which use associations between known occurrences of species and environmental variables to identify environmental conditions under which populations can be maintained. The spatial distribution of environments suitable for the species can then be estimated: a potential distribution for the species. This approach has broad applicability to ecology, evolution, biogeography, and conservation biology, as well as to understanding the geographic potential of invasive species and infectious diseases, and the biological implications of climate change. The book lays out conceptual foundations and general principles for understanding and interpreting species distributions with respect to geography and environment. Focus is on development of niche models. While serving as a guide for students and researchers, the book also provides a theoretical framework to support future progress in the field.

Range shifts due to climate change may cause species to move out of protected areas. Climate change could therefore result in species range dynamics that reduce the relevance of current fixed protected areas in future conservation strategies. Here, we apply species distribution modeling and conservation planning tools in three regions (Mexico, the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, and Western Europe) to examine the need for additional protected areas in light of anticipated species range shifts caused by climate change. We set species representation targets and assessed the area required to meet those targets in the present and in the future, under a moderate climate change scenario. Our findings indicate that protected areas can be an important conservation strategy in such a scenario, and that early action may be both more effective and less costly than inaction or delayed action. According to our projections, costs may vary among regions and none of the three areas studied will fully meet all conservation targets, even under a moderate climate change scenario. This suggests that limiting climate change is an essential complement to adding protected areas for conservation of biodiversity.

Despite the importance of tropical biodiversity, informative species distributional data are seldom available for biogeographical study or setting conservation priorities. Modelling ecological niche distributions of species offers a potential solution; however, the utility of old locality data from museums, and of more recent remotely sensed satellite data, remains poorly explored, especially for rapidly changing tropical landscapes. Using 29 modern data sets of environmental land coverage and 621 chameleon occurrence localities from Madagascar (historical and recent), here we demonstrate a significant ability of our niche models in predicting species distribution. At 11 recently inventoried sites, highest predictive success (85.1%) was obtained for models based only on modern occurrence data (74.7% and 82.8% predictive success, respectively, for pre-1978 and all data combined). Notably, these models also identified three intersecting areas of over-prediction that recently yielded seven chameleon species new to science. We conclude that ecological niche modelling using recent locality records and readily available environmental coverage data provides informative biogeographical data for poorly known tropical landscapes, and offers innovative potential for the discovery of unknown distributional areas and unknown species.

Aim Theoretical work suggests that species' ecological niches should remain relatively constant over long-term ecological time periods, but empirical tests are few. We present longitudinal studies of 23 extant mammal species, modelling ecological niches and predicting geographical distributions reciprocally between the Last Glacial Maximum and present to test this evolutionary conservatism.Location This study covered distributional shifts in mammal species across the lower 48 states of the United States. MethodsWe used a machine-learning tool for modelling species' ecological niches, based on known occurrences and electronic maps summarizing ecological dimensions, to assess the ability of ecological niches as modelled in one time period to predict the geographical distribution of the species in another period, and vice versa. ResultsHigh intertemporal predictivity between niche models and species' occurrences indicate that niche conservatism is widespread among the taxa studied, particularly when statistical power is considered as a reason for failure of reciprocal predictions. Niche projections to the present for 8 mammal taxa that became extinct at the end of the Pleistocene generally increased in area, and thus do not support the hypothesis of niche collapse as a major driving force in their extinction. Main conclusionsEcological niches represent long-term stable constraints on the distributional potential of species; indeed, this study suggests that mammal species have tracked consistent climate profiles throughout the drastic climate change events that marked the end of the Pleistocene glaciations. Many current modelling efforts focusing on anticipating climate change effects on species' potential geographical distributions will be bolstered by this result -in essence, the first longitudinal demonstration of niche conservatism.

We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species' responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower, rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics.

Spatial abundance patterns across species' ranges have attracted intense attention in macroecology and biogeography. One key hypothesis has been that abundance declines with geographical distance from the range centre, but tests of this idea have shown that the effect may occur indeed only in a minority of cases. We explore an alternative hypothesis: that species' abundances decline with distance from the centroid of the species' habitable conditions in environmental space (the ecological niche). We demonstrate consistent negative abundance -ecological distance relationships across all 11 species analysed (turtles to wolves), and that relationships in environmental space are consistently stronger than relationships in geographical space.