Understanding social-ecological system dynamics is a major research priority for sustainable management of landscapes, ecosystems and resources. But the lack of multi-decadal records represents an important gap in information that hinders the development of the research agenda. Without improved information on the long-term and complex interactions between causal factors and responses, it will be difficult to answer key questions about trends, rates of change, tipping points, safe operating spaces and pre-impact conditions. Where available longterm monitored records are too short or lacking, palaeoenvironmental sciences may provide
Weather and climate extremes are part of the natural variability. However, the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes have increased in the globe following the global warming. Extreme precipitation impacts such as landslides and flooding with implications to vulnerability and adaptation are discussed for two regions of the state of São Paulo: the Metropolitan Region of Campinas and the Metropolitan Region of the Baixada Santista, located in southeastern South America. Simulations and projections obtained from four integrations of the Regional Eta model are analyzed to investigate the model behavior during the period of 1961-1990 and the projections within the period of 2011-2100. Uncertainties are discussed based on the standard deviation among the model spread. The projections show precipitation increase in the Metropolitan Region of Campinas during DJF for the near and distant future, while there are more uncertainties in the other seasons. In the Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, the precipitation increase is projected to all seasons, except JJA, when there is higher uncertainty. Daily rainfall indices suggest an increase of precipitation during the rainy days, but a reduction in the number of rainy days in both locations. The projections show a reduction of light rains and an increase of heavy rains at both regions. The model identifies the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and frontal systems as precipitation patterns associated with extremes in the two locations. The results can be useful for adaptation actions, since the regions are highly populated and have high vulnerabilities.
Sea Level Rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments in coastal zones around the world. Assessment of the risks due to exposure and sensitivity of coastal communities to coastal flooding is essential for informed decisionmaking. Strategies for public understanding and awareness of the tangible effects of climate change are fundamental in developing policy options. A multidisciplinary, multinational team of natural and social scientists from the United States, United Kingdom, and Brazil developed the METROPOLE Project to evaluate how local governments may decide between adaptation options associated with SLR projections. METROPOLE developed a participatory approach in which public actors engage fully in defining the research problem and evaluating outcomes. Using a case study of the city of Santos, in Brazil, METROPOLE developed a method for evaluating risks jointly with the community, comparing 'no-action' to 'adaptation' scenarios. At the core of the analysis are estimates of economic costs of the impact of floods on urban real estate under SLR projections through 2050 and 2100. Results helped identify broad preferences and orientations in adaptation planning, which the community, including the Santos municipal government, co-developed in a joint effort with natural and social scientists.
O presente trabalho teve como objetivo realizar o mapeamento de risco de desastres naturais para o Estado de Santa Catarina, associados às instabilidades atmosféricas severas. Para a obtenção do índice de risco foram calculados os índices de perigo, de vulnerabilidade e de reposta para cada município catarinense. O índice de perigo foi obtido através da freqüência de desastres naturais; o índice de vulnerabilidade através da soma das variáveis DD, IP e PI; e o índice resposta é dado pelo IDH-Municipal. No total foram computados 2.881 desastres associados a instabilidades atmosféricas (120 eventos/ano). Destes episódios, 1.299 foram associados à inundação gradual, - o que representa 45 % do total, - seguido pela inundação brusca e vendaval com 19 e 17%, respectivamente. As mesorregiões mais afetadas foram Oeste Catarinense, Vale do Itajaí e Grande lorianópolis. Com relação ao índice de risco, os municípios mais problemáticos, que carecem de medidas preventivas a curto prazo, localizam-se nas mesorregiões Oeste e Norte Catarinense. Dentre os municípios que apresentaram maior índice de risco destaca-se Florianópolis (1,74), Blumenau (1,54), São José dos Cedros (1,03), Joinville (1,03) e Chapecó (0,71). Com exceção de São José dos Cedros, estes municípios apresentaram elevada densidade demográfica e frequência de desastres naturais.
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