Projections of Precipitation Changes in Two Vulnerable Regions of São Paulo State, Brazil

Abstract

Weather and climate extremes are part of the natural variability. However, the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes have increased in the globe following the global warming. Extreme precipitation impacts such as landslides and flooding with implications to vulnerability and adaptation are discussed for two regions of the state of São Paulo: the Metropolitan Region of Campinas and the Metropolitan Region of the Baixada Santista, located in southeastern South America. Simulations and projections obtained from four integrations of the Regional Eta model are analyzed to investigate the model behavior during the period of 1961-1990 and the projections within the period of 2011-2100. Uncertainties are discussed based on the standard deviation among the model spread. The projections show precipitation increase in the Metropolitan Region of Campinas during DJF for the near and distant future, while there are more uncertainties in the other seasons. In the Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, the precipitation increase is projected to all seasons, except JJA, when there is higher uncertainty. Daily rainfall indices suggest an increase of precipitation during the rainy days, but a reduction in the number of rainy days in both locations. The projections show a reduction of light rains and an increase of heavy rains at both regions. The model identifies the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and frontal systems as precipitation patterns associated with extremes in the two locations. The results can be useful for adaptation actions, since the regions are highly populated and have high vulnerabilities.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrology of a Small Brazilian Headwater Catchment Using the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

“…Southeastern Brazil, in the hydrological years of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015, experienced the worst water crisis yet observed due to rainfall much below average and high temperatures in the summer [5] [6] [7]. That water crisis may be associated with a number of factors, such as: socio-spatial disparities, losses in the water distribution networks, poor infrastructure, inadequate political actions for socioeconomic development and environmental education, and deforestation of the Atlantic Forest [7] [8] [9] [10].…”

Analysis of the Campinas tornado (Brazil) in June 2016: damage track, radar characteristics and lightning observations of the supercell

“…Campinas and neighboring towns have a diverse and dynamic economy. During the last decades the region became one of the most sophisticated centers for research and development of science, technology and innovation in the country, concentrating more than 50 branches of the 500 largest companies in the world and accounting for 10% of industrial production in Brazil in various sectors, such as automotive, textile, metallurgy, food, pharmaceutical, petrochemical, telecommunications and electronics (Cavalcanti et al, 2017). Campinas is one of the 15 National Brazilian Metropolis (IBGE, 2018), with 34 cities under its influence; in other words, Campinas is an attraction pole for health services, high education and technology.…”

Climate-Smart Orange Juice

“…An increase in severe weather events, including droughts, is expected for Brazil as whole [1] and it is feared that further deforestation in the Amazon will rob southern states of the moisture-rich air masses that the tropical forests generate [18]. In São Paulo state specifically, a trend of more intense rainfall events alongside more dry days is expected [19], with higher temperatures meaning any rain that does fall evaporates more quickly. For orange farmers, in particular, this testing climate future may have an extra sting in the tail.…”