BC's forests have already faced two simultaneous, globally significant, epidemics linked to climate change; the Dothistroma needle blight epidemic in NW BC and the massive mountain pine beetle epidemic throughout the BC Interior. Building on these experiences, we have compiled our best estimates of how we believe other forest health agents may behave as climate change continues to influence our forests. We have drawn on literature from around the world but have focused on the situation in BC. We have made management recommendations based on what we have seen so far and what we expect to come.Key words: climate change, forest health, forest insects, forest pathogens, forest management, British Columbia RÉSUMÉ Les forêts de la C.-B. ont déjà subi simultanément deux épidémies significativement importantes liées aux changements climatiques : la brûlure en bande rouge à l' état d' épidémie dans le nord-ouest de la C.-B. et l'infestation massive par le dendroctone du pin ponderosa relevé partout dans la zone intérieure de la C.-B. À partir de ces situations, nous avons bâti nos meilleurs estimés de ce qu'il nous semble sera le comportement d'autres ravageurs forestiers alors que les changements climatiques continuent de modifier nos forêts. Nous avons consulté des documents de partout dans le monde, mais nous nous sommes attardés à la situation vécue en C.-B. Nous avons établi des recommandations portant sur l'aménagement d'après ce que nous avons constaté à ce jour et selon ce que nous prévoyons pour l'avenir.
A diameter distribution survey at three sites in the interior of British Columbia revealed that the western balsam bark beetle (Dryocoetes confusus Swaine) predominately attacked trees from the three to four largest diameter classes at each site. However, the mean diameter of attacked trees was significantly different among sites, indicating that factors other than diameter contribute to the susceptibility of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) to the western balsam bark beetle. A number of tree characteristics, including measures of growth, age, crown size, and phloem thickness, were compared among a total of 22 successfully attacked, 26 unsuccessfully attacked, and 28 unattacked trees at three sites. Of the 12 tree characteristics measured, five showed significant differences between successfully attacked and unattacked trees. Successfully attacked trees had a lower percentage of the bole covered with constant crown, lower crown volume, lower radial growth in the last 5 years, and were older than unattacked trees. Successfully attacked trees also produced less induced resinosis than unsuccessfully attacked trees. The results of this study suggest that western balsam bark beetle mortality may be limited by the presence and distribution of susceptible hosts. The study also identifies a number of variables that could be used in a susceptibility and risk rating model for western balsam bark beetle.
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