Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium. However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed.

Parthenium hysterophorus (Asteraceae), of South American origin, is considered to be one of the worldÕs most serious invasive plants, invading Australia, Asia and Africa. As part of an international collaborative project, this study attempted to improve the understanding of the geographical distribution of P. hysterophorus in eastern and southern Africa. The climate modelling program CLIMEX was used to assist in the selection of survey localities. Roadside surveys of the distribution of the weed were conducted in Botswana, Ethiopia, South Africa, Swaziland and Uganda. Prior to these surveys, only limited P. hysterophorus locality records existed; substantially more records were obtained from surveys. Most infestations were high density (>3 plants m )2 ). Distribution records were used to validate the CLIMEX model, which proved a useful tool. This study increased current understanding of the distribution of P. hysterophorus and developed a baseline from which to monitor future spread and abundance of P. hysterophorus. Additional surveys are required in other countries in Africa which are predicted by CLIMEX to be at risk. This will enhance integrated management decisions for the control of a weed which has implications for food security and human health.

Temperature and resource availability are key elements known to limit the occurrence and survival of arthropods in the wild. In the current era of climate change, critical thermal limits and the factors affecting these may be of particular importance. We therefore investigated the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) of adult Zygogramma bicolorata beetles, a biological control agent for the invasive plant Parthenium hysterophorus, in relation to thermal acclimation, hardening, age, and food availability using static (constant) and dynamic (ramping) protocols. Increasing temperatures and exposure times reduced heat survival. In general, older age and lack of food reduced heat tolerance, suggesting an important impact of resource availability. Acclimation at constant temperatures did not affect CTmax, while fluctuating thermal conditions resulted in a substantial increase. Hardening at 33°C and 35°C improved heat survival in fed young and mid-aged but only partly in old beetles, while CTmax remained unaffected by hardening throughout. These findings stress the importance of methodology when assessing heat tolerance. Temperature data recorded in the field revealed that upper thermal limits are at least occasionally reached in nature. Our results therefore suggest that the occurrence of heat waves may influence the performance and survival of Z. bicolorata, potentially impacting on its field establishment and effectiveness as a biological control agent.

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Background: Biological control of invasive alien plants (IAPs) using introduced natural enemies contributes significantly to sustained, cost-effective management of natural resources in South Africa. The status of, and prospects for, biological control is therefore integral to National Status Reports (NSRs) on Biological Invasions, the first of which is due in 2017. Objectives: Our aim was to evaluate the status of, and prospects for, biological control of IAPs in South Africa. We discuss expansion of biological control and suggest indicators to be used in the upcoming NSR to assess sufficient growth. Method: We used published literature, unpublished work and personal communication to assess the status of biological control of IAPs. We propose indicators based on the targets for biological control that were proposed in the 2014 ‘National Strategy for dealing with biological invasions in South Africa’. To prioritise targets for future efforts, we used published lists of damaging IAPs and assessed the prospects for their biological control. Recommendations for using biological control as a management tool were made after discussion among the authors and with colleagues. Results: Significant control of several Cactaceae, Australian Acacia species and floating aquatic plants, and many other IAPs has been achieved in South Africa since 1913. Recently, biological control has benefited from improved international collaboration, a streamlined application process for the release of new biological control agents (resulting in the approval of 19 agents against 13 IAP species since 2013), and increased funding and capacity. There is still a need to improve implementation and to better integrate biological control with other control methods. In order to maximise benefits from biological control, increased investment is required, particularly in implementation and post-release evaluation, and in targeting new IAPs. Proposed targets for growth between 2017 and 2020 include an increase in financial investment in research by 29%, implementation by 28% and mass-rearing by 68%. Research capacity should increase by 29%, implementation capacity by 63% and mass-rearing capacity by 61%. New research projects should be initiated on 12 new IAP targets, while post-release monitoring efforts should be expanded to another 31 IAPs. Conclusion: Biological control of IAPs has contributed substantially to their management in South Africa, and continues to do so. Further investment in targeted aspects of IAP biological control will increase this contribution.

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Invasive alien species require co-ordinated strategic management if negative impacts are to be effectively avoided. Here we describe a strategy for the management of Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) in South Africa. P. hysterophorus is an annual herb native to tropical America, which has become invasive in over 30 countries. The strategy sets goals for (1) the prevention of spread to new areas; (2) local eradication of isolated populations; (3) containment in areas where eradication is not possible; and (4) actions to protect assets where containment is no longer an option. We developed both a national strategy to set policy and to monitor progress towards goals at a national level and an implementation plan to set goals and timeframes for their achievement at local levels. It is not clear, at this stage, whether or not the goals of the strategy are achievable because implementation will face many challenges arising from ecological features of the target plant, social and cultural practices that will influence management, inadequate levels of funding and multiple political considerations. Our strategy proposes regular assessment using high-level indicators, a practice that is widely recognised as essential but seldom implemented at a national scale. Because the outcomes are uncertain, it is vital that regular monitoring of outcomes should be instituted from the start, so that both appropriate adjustments can be made to the strategy and lessons for the implementation of similar strategies elsewhere can be derived.